Archive for category: News & Insights

In brief:

We are at the beginning of the end of this economic cycle. However, the duration of this slowdown remains elusive as employment conditions remain robust. Historical US recessions have been as short as two months to as long as 18 months but have averaged ten months overall. Now is the time to be cautious but not outright bearish.

Interest rates will stay higher for longer. Short-term interest rates continue to be influenced by inflation that, in turn, is not falling fast enough because of factors outside Central Banks’ control. For example, Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate hikes will not mitigate the inflationary impact of strong immigration pushing up rental prices. For long term interest rates, the unsustainability of the US fiscal path remains a simmering issue, putting upward pressure on long-term interest rates.

Compensation to Equity investors is poor for taking on equity risk at this point in the cycle. Equally poor expected earnings growth compounds the disadvantage to Equity investors.

We have started to apply hedges in our global equity allocations to reflect the extreme move we have seen in the Australian Dollar.

To access the full Portfolio Perspectives for November 2023, download the PDF here, along with the charts & commentary.

 

 

Important Notice: This document is published by Lonsec Investment Solutions Pty Ltd (LIS) ACN: 608 837 583, a corporate authorised representative (CAR number: 1236821) of Lonsec Research Pty Ltd ABN: 11 151 658 561 AFSL: 421 445 (Lonsec Research). LIS and Lonsec Research are owned by Lonsec Holdings Pty Ltd ACN: 151 235 406. LIS creates the model portfolios it distributes using the investment research provided by Lonsec Research but has not had any involvement in the investment research process for Lonsec Research. Please read the following before making any investment decision about any financial product mentioned in this document.

Disclosure at the date of publication: Lonsec Research receives a fee from the relevant fund managers or product issuers for researching financial products (using objective criteria) which may be referred to in this document. Lonsec Research may also receive a fee from the fund manager or product issuer (s) for subscribing to research content and other Lonsec Research services. LIS receives fees for providing investment consulting advice, approved product lists, model portfolios to financial services professionals and other advice to clients. LIS’ and Lonsec Research’s fees are not linked to the financial product rating(s) outcome or the inclusion of the financial product(s) in model portfolios. LIS, Lonsec Research and/or their associates may hold any financial product(s) referred to in this document, but details of these holdings are not known to the analyst(s).

Warnings: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Any express or implied rating or advice presented in this document is limited to “general advice” (as defined in the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth)) and based solely on consideration of the investment merits of the financial product(s) alone, without taking into account the investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs (“financial circumstances”) of any particular person. Before making an investment decision based on the rating or advice, the reader must consider whether it is personally appropriate in light of their financial circumstances or should seek independent financial advice on its appropriateness. If the advice relates to the acquisition or possible acquisition of a particular financial product, the reader should obtain and consider the Investment Statement or the Product Disclosure Statement for each financial product before making any decision about whether to acquire the financial product.

Disclaimer: LIS provides this document for the exclusive use of its clients. It is not intended for use by a retail client or a member of the public and should not be used or relied upon by any other person. No representation, warranty or undertaking is given or made in relation to the accuracy or completeness of the information presented in this document, which is drawn from public information not verified by LIS. Financial conclusions, ratings and advice are given on reasonable grounds held at the time of completion (refer to the date of this document) but subject to change without notice. LIS assumes no obligation to update this document following publication. Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, LIS and Lonsec, their directors, officers, employees and agents disclaim all liability for any error or inaccuracy in, misstatement or omission from, this document or any loss or damage suffered by the reader or any other person as a consequence of relying upon it.

This report is subject to copyright of LIS. Except for the temporary copy held in a computer’s cache and a single permanent copy for your personal reference or other than as permitted under the Copyright Act 1968 (Cth), no part of this report may, in any form or by any means (electronic, mechanical, micro-copying, photocopying, recording or otherwise), be reproduced, stored or transmitted without the prior written permission of LIS.

This document may also contain third party supplied material that is subject to copyright. Any such material is the intellectual property of that third party or its content providers. The same restrictions applying above to LIS copyrighted material, applies to such third-party content.

Copyright © 2023 Lonsec Investment Solutions Pty Ltd

In brief:

We believe an apparent imbalance between the supply and demand of US government debt could lead to higher long-term interest rates regardless of the inflation path. For defensive allocations, we prefer Australian long-term bonds over the US equivalent.

We believe the key drivers of Australian inflation are largely outside of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s influence, meaning it is uncertain whether they will keep raising interest rates. This keeps us neutral on Australian Equities.

The persistent underperformance of China’s equity market has extended to where we now believe the balance of outcomes justifies removing our underweight call to Emerging Markets.

We believe the general interest rate environment will be flat, with the potential for higher interest rates in the near term. This environment has historically been challenging for interest rate-sensitive equities.

To access the full Portfolio Perspectives for October 2023, download the PDF here

 

 

Important Notice: This document is published by Lonsec Investment Solutions Pty Ltd (LIS) ACN: 608 837 583, a corporate authorised representative (CAR number: 1236821) of Lonsec Research Pty Ltd ABN: 11 151 658 561 AFSL: 421 445 (Lonsec Research). LIS and Lonsec Research are owned by Lonsec Holdings Pty Ltd ACN: 151 235 406. LIS creates the model portfolios it distributes using the investment research provided by Lonsec Research but has not had any involvement in the investment research process for Lonsec Research. Please read the following before making any investment decision about any financial product mentioned in this document.

Disclosure at the date of publication: Lonsec Research receives a fee from the relevant fund managers or product issuers for researching financial products (using objective criteria) which may be referred to in this document. Lonsec Research may also receive a fee from the fund manager or product issuer (s) for subscribing to research content and other Lonsec Research services. LIS receives fees for providing investment consulting advice, approved product lists, model portfolios to financial services professionals and other advice to clients. LIS’ and Lonsec Research’s fees are not linked to the financial product rating(s) outcome or the inclusion of the financial product(s) in model portfolios. LIS, Lonsec Research and/or their associates may hold any financial product(s) referred to in this document, but details of these holdings are not known to the analyst(s).

Warnings: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Any express or implied rating or advice presented in this document is limited to “general advice” (as defined in the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth)) and based solely on consideration of the investment merits of the financial product(s) alone, without taking into account the investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs (“financial circumstances”) of any particular person. Before making an investment decision based on the rating or advice, the reader must consider whether it is personally appropriate in light of their financial circumstances or should seek independent financial advice on its appropriateness. If the advice relates to the acquisition or possible acquisition of a particular financial product, the reader should obtain and consider the Investment Statement or the Product Disclosure Statement for each financial product before making any decision about whether to acquire the financial product.

Disclaimer: LIS provides this document for the exclusive use of its clients. It is not intended for use by a retail client or a member of the public and should not be used or relied upon by any other person. No representation, warranty or undertaking is given or made in relation to the accuracy or completeness of the information presented in this document, which is drawn from public information not verified by LIS. Financial conclusions, ratings and advice are given on reasonable grounds held at the time of completion (refer to the date of this document) but subject to change without notice. LIS assumes no obligation to update this document following publication. Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, LIS and Lonsec, their directors, officers, employees and agents disclaim all liability for any error or inaccuracy in, misstatement or omission from, this document or any loss or damage suffered by the reader or any other person as a consequence of relying upon it.

This report is subject to copyright of LIS. Except for the temporary copy held in a computer’s cache and a single permanent copy for your personal reference or other than as permitted under the Copyright Act 1968 (Cth), no part of this report may, in any form or by any means (electronic, mechanical, micro-copying, photocopying, recording or otherwise), be reproduced, stored or transmitted without the prior written permission of LIS.

This document may also contain third party supplied material that is subject to copyright. Any such material is the intellectual property of that third party or its content providers. The same restrictions applying above to LIS copyrighted material, applies to such third-party content.

Copyright © 2023 Lonsec Investment Solutions Pty Ltd

The much-anticipated slowdown in economic growth appears to be upon us, with GDP in Australia slowing to 2.3%. While only slightly below long-term trend GDP at this point, it is the direction and speed of travel that counts. Discretionary spending has eased (-1.0%), as cost of living pressures finally hit the consumer. Perhaps not surprisingly, the slowdown is being felt most in the more expensive housing markets of NSW and Victoria, where high house prices translate into high mortgage costs.

As reporting season wraps up, the picture is also becoming clearer for corporates. Earnings have come down, but not by as much as expected which has so far pleased equity markets. There have been good reasons why earnings have been so resilient to date; from very tight labour markets to consumers being flush with covid cash buffers and businesses, in many cases, able to pass on rising input costs. Looking forward, however, earnings growth looks harder to come by in 2024 as these tailwinds ease. The impact of rising rates, tighter credit conditions and higher costs are indeed feeding through the economy albeit with a long lag.

Our base case remains that Australia will avoid recession thanks to a significant rebound in migration this year and the continued demand for our resources as the global economy continues its decarbonisation path. Inflation continues to soften slowly with the latest headline number coming in at 4.9%. It’s still a long way away from the central bank’s target range of 2-3%. The RBA has kept rates on hold for a second month in a row but remains on alert as inflation has the potential to remain stickier here than in other parts of the developed world.

We remain cautious and positioned for the weaker economic conditions ahead. Our focus is on quality investments, liquid assets and active portfolio management which should put us in good stead to manage any volatility that may arise as the year progresses.

IMPORTANT NOTICE: This document is published by Lonsec Investment Solutions Pty Ltd ACN 608 837 583, a Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR 1236821) (LIS) of Lonsec Research Pty Ltd ABN 11 151 658 561 AFSL 421 445 (Lonsec Research).  LIS creates the model portfolios it distributes using the investment research provided by Lonsec Research but LIS has not had any involvement in the investment research process for Lonsec Research. LIS and Lonsec Research are owned by Lonsec Holdings Pty Ltd ACN 151 235 406. Please read the following before making any investment decision about any financial product mentioned in this document.

DISCLOSURE AT THE DATE OF PUBLICATION: Lonsec Research receives a fee from the relevant fund manager or product issuer(s) for researching financial products (using objective criteria) which may be referred to in this document. Lonsec Research may also receive a fee from the fund manager or product issuer(s) for subscribing to research content and other Lonsec Research services.  LIS receives a fee for providing the model portfolios to financial services organisations and professionals. LIS’ and Lonsec Research’s fees are not linked to the financial product rating(s) outcome or the inclusion of the financial product(s) in model portfolios. LIS and Lonsec Research and their representatives and/or their associates may hold any financial product(s) referred to in this document, but details of these holdings are not known to the Lonsec Research analyst(s).

WARNINGS: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Any express or implied rating or advice presented in this document is limited to general advice and based solely on consideration of the investment merits of the financial product(s) alone, without taking into account the investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs (“financial circumstances”) of any particular person. Before making an investment decision based on the rating or advice, the reader must consider whether it is personally appropriate in light of his or her financial circumstances or should seek independent financial advice on its appropriateness.  If the financial advice relates to the acquisition or possible acquisition of a particular financial product, the reader should obtain and consider the Investment Statement or the Product Disclosure Statement for each financial product before making any decision about whether to acquire the financial product.

DISCLAIMER: No representation, warranty or undertaking is given or made in relation to the accuracy or completeness of the information presented in this document, which is drawn from public information not verified by LIS. The information contained in this document is current as at the date of publication. Financial conclusions, ratings and advice are reasonably held at the time of publication but subject to change without notice. LIS assumes no obligation to update this document following publication. Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, LIS and Lonsec Research, their directors, officers, employees and agents disclaim all liability for any error or inaccuracy in, misstatement or omission from, this document or any loss or damage suffered by the reader or any other person as a consequence of relying upon it.

Copyright © 2023 Lonsec Investment Solutions Pty Ltd ACN 608 837 583 (LIS). This document may also contain third party supplied material that is subject to copyright.  The same restrictions that apply to LIS copyrighted material, apply to such third-party content.