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Insights from our CIO – Structural pressures to keep inflation in check

By Lukasz de Pourbaix, Executive Director & CIO – Lonsec Investment Solutions

Markets have been buoyed as signs of an economic recovery continue to be reflected in economic data. The IMF (International Monetary Fund) has revised their projections upwards on global GDP growth with the US expected to grow by 6.4% in 2021 and China by 8.4% over the same period. Domestically, we have seen a similar trend with manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors as measured by the PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) lifting in March and consumer sentiment also on the rise.

The rotation into cyclical and contrarian value stocks continued for the first two months of the quarter as the market digested the prospect of an economic recovery and the potential for an uptick in inflation. Lonsec’s base case is that we may see a modest rise in inflation over the next 12 months, but that over the medium-term inflation will remain under control as broader structural deflationary pressures such as the continual impact of technology in society and the aging population continue to weigh down on most developed economies.

From an asset allocation perspective, we continue to favour risk assets over bonds despite bond yields rising over the quarter. Over the medium term we believe that cash rates and bond yields will remain relatively low which will continue to be conducive for risk assets. From a dynamic asset allocation perspective, we are favouring Australian Equities and Emerging Markets and within Fixed Income we are seeking to diversify away from duration risk.

IMPORTANT NOTICE: This document is published by Lonsec Investment Solutions Pty Ltd ACN 608 837 583, a Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR 1236821) (LIS) of Lonsec Research Pty Ltd ABN 11 151 658 561 AFSL 421 445 (Lonsec Research). LIS creates the model portfolios it distributes using the investment research provided by Lonsec Research but LIS has not had any involvement in the investment research process for Lonsec Research. LIS and Lonsec Research are owned by Lonsec Holdings Pty Ltd ACN 151 235 406. Please read the following before making any investment decision about any financial product mentioned in this document.

DISCLOSURE AT THE DATE OF PUBLICATION: Lonsec Research receives a fee from the relevant fund manager or product issuer(s) for researching financial products (using objective criteria) which may be referred to in this document. Lonsec Research may also receive a fee from the fund manager or product issuer(s) for subscribing to research content and other Lonsec Research services. LIS receives a fee for providing the model portfolios to financial services organisations and professionals. LIS’ and Lonsec Research’s fees are not linked to the financial product rating(s) outcome or the inclusion of the financial product(s) in model portfolios. LIS and Lonsec Research and their representatives and/or their associates may hold any financial product(s) referred to in this document, but details of these holdings are not known to the Lonsec Research analyst(s).

WARNINGS: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Any express or implied rating or advice presented in this document is limited to general advice and based solely on consideration of the investment merits of the financial product(s) alone, without taking into account the investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs (“financial circumstances”) of any particular person. Before making an investment decision based on the rating or advice, the reader must consider whether it is personally appropriate in light of his or her financial circumstances or should seek independent financial advice on its appropriateness. If the financial advice relates to the acquisition or possible acquisition of a particular financial product, the reader should obtain and consider the Investment Statement or the Product Disclosure Statement for each financial product before making any decision about whether to acquire the financial product.

DISCLAIMER: No representation, warranty or undertaking is given or made in relation to the accuracy or completeness of the information presented in this document, which is drawn from public information not verified by LIS. The information contained in this document is current as at the date of publication. Financial conclusions, ratings and advice are reasonably held at the time of publication but subject to change without notice. LIS assumes no obligation to update this document following publication. Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, LIS and Lonsec Research, their directors, officers, employees and agents disclaim all liability for any error or inaccuracy in, misstatement or omission from, this document or any loss or damage suffered by the reader or any other person as a consequence of relying upon it.

Copyright © 2021 Lonsec Investment Solutions Pty Ltd ACN 608 837 583 (LIS). This document may also contain third party supplied material that is subject to copyright. The same restrictions that apply to LIS copyrighted material, apply to such third-party content.

April 22, 2021/by Lukasz de Pourbaix

Insights, News & Insights

The great office space debate: Outlook for Australian property

Debate in global property markets is now focused on office markets and how the global pandemic may have changed demand for office space on a permanent basis. In Australia, the immediate impact has seen CBD office vacancy levels rise in Sydney and Melbourne from 3.0–4.0% to around 8.0–9.0% over the year to January 2021.

Net absorption for Australia overall has reduced from +50,000 sqm in the six months to January 2020 to -90,000 sqm in the latest six months to January 2021. Sub-leasing levels have spiked as tenants with longer leases look to offload spare capacity. While face rents have remained largely unchanged, incentives have jumped to over 35% compared to around 25% pre-pandemic, dampening net effective rents.

The return to work in CBDs is progressive, but there is a growing realisation that more flexibility to allow working from home arrangements is both possible and desired. As corporates plan ahead and leases come to an end, already there is demand for core space plus an option for a flexible amount. Landlords will also need to ensure that buildings provide good quality space (including high environmental ratings) with facilities being upgraded in line with social distancing requirements.

While there will be some requirement for more space per person, it is likely that the trend for more flexible space and working from home arrangements will drag on demand while the world works its way through this pandemic. Given there is the possibility of more pandemics in the future, the outlook for office space will have a higher degree of uncertainty. A bright spot is medical and life sciences office space, where demand has been boosted by pandemic conditions.

Property sector will keep evolving

In the March quarter 2021 Australian property securities lost ground (S&P/ASX 300 A-REIT Index -0.5%) to the broader Australian equities index (+4.3%), although a stronger March almost made up for a poor first two months of the new year. Conversely, global property securities – AUD hedged (+7.3%) outperformed global equities – AUD hedged (+6.1%) during the first quarter of 2021.

Healthcare property continues to evolve with limited listed opportunities in Australia but increasing activity in unlisted funds. The highlight during the last quarter was the bid for Australian Unity Healthcare Property Trust by Canadian-based NorthWest Healthcare, with two conditional bids being rejected by Australian Unity as significantly undervaluing the patiently accumulated portfolio (December 2020 value was $2.4 billion) plus the ongoing development potential.

Heavily sold off early in 2020, retail property REITs have had bursts of recovery during the last six months as investors reacted to a vaccine-led recovery. Food and necessity-based shopping centres have continued to trade well and remain in demand by investors. Shopping strips and malls with a high proportion of discretionary spending have been hard hit, and owners face a period of readjustment in tenant mix and rentals. Nevertheless, in countries where lockdowns have lifted, foot traffic has rapidly returned to the ‘fortress’ shopping centres.

Secondary market for residential property expected to stabilise

A surprising area of strength is the residential market in Australia and some other parts of the globe where the COVID-19 response has been well handled (e.g. New Zealand). The combination of the RBA announcing that interest rates would stay low for a number of years and a shortage of supply in the secondary market has seen prices escalate quickly. This seems at odds with the underlying economic conditions in Australia where government income support (i.e. JobKeeper) has now ended and banks require mortgages to be serviced after a brief hiatus for those in need.

Lonsec expects some stabilisation to occur in pricing for the secondary housing market as these factors take hold and supply increases. Developers of primary housing stock will reap the benefits in the near term, although the apartment market is softer as demand is weak (no international buyers or renters) and rentals are about 20% lower than the pre-pandemic level. While values in regional and coastal areas have reacted to the work from home trend, this is also a reflection of relative value compared to the capital cities.

The residential rental and manufactured housing sectors are well developed internationally and have shown their resilience with a high proportion of recurring income from a multitude of tenants, although these sectors are not immune from some impact of a pandemic. Student housing is a good example, where travel restrictions have seen international student occupancy at very low levels. Longer-term trends of demand for high quality education should see these businesses recover in due course.

Property subsector winners include the Industrial and logistics and data centre sectors as growth continues off the back of accelerating trends towards e-commerce. However, pricing of assets in this area has become historically expensive and investors need to tread carefully to ensure the properties have tenants that are tied in not only by long leases, but by specialised fit-outs (preferably tenant funded). Similarly, hotels and lodging earnings are set to benefit as intra-national travel restrictions are eased and are dependent on how international travel patterns pan out.

A key positive that remains in place is low interest rates globally, which are having the impact of maintaining investor demand and underpinning tight market capitalisation rates (apart from discretionary retail assets). Lonsec maintains the view that these policy settings are artificially low, and as inflation resurfaces, bond rates and borrowing costs will rise (the US 10-year rate rose from 0.72% in October 2020 to 1.85% at the end of March 2021).

At this stage, REITs remain reasonably geared and investors should steer away from companies starting to push these boundaries. At the same time, highly priced property groups with components of funds management and development earnings can be vulnerable to a reversal of asset values.

Issued by Lonsec Research Pty Ltd ABN 11 151 658 561 AFSL 421 445 (Lonsec). Warning: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Any advice is General Advice without considering the objectives, financial situation and needs of any person. Before making a decision read the PDS and consider your financial circumstances or seek personal advice. Disclaimer: Lonsec gives no warranty of accuracy or completeness of information in this document, which is compiled from information from public and third-party sources. Opinions are reasonably held by Lonsec at compilation. Lonsec assumes no obligation to update this document after publication. Except for liability which can’t be excluded, Lonsec, its directors, officers, employees and agents disclaim all liability for any error, inaccuracy, misstatement or omission, or any loss suffered through relying on the document or any information. ©2021 Lonsec. All rights reserved. This report may also contain third party material that is subject to copyright. To the extent that copyright subsists in a third party it remains with the original owner and permission may be required to reuse the material. Any unauthorised reproduction of this information is prohibited.

April 22, 2021/by Kevin Prosser

Insights

COVID winners face higher expectations in 2021

The rotation out of growth into value sectors continued over the March quarter as the economic recovery began to materialise with a lower unemployment rate contributing to stronger growth. Unless some unforeseen tail risk event occurs, it is expected that business and consumer confidence will rise, providing a clear indication of ‘normal’ conditions returning in the not-too-distant future.

The re-opening of state borders, very low levels of community transmission, and the rollout of the COVID-19 vaccine program has delivered a boost of optimism for investors, particularly sectors linked directly to the re-opening of the economy, in particular consumer discretionary, industrial and resources. However, companies that have been among the clear ‘winners’ from COVID-19 (e.g. Coles and JB Hi-Fi) will now have significantly higher comparable sales to meet or exceed in upcoming result periods to maintain their share price gains.

Looking back over the March quarter, returns were led by the telecommunications, financials and consumer discretionary sectors, with key companies producing stronger than expected results primarily driven by cost control and margin expansion. Notably, the banks reinstated larger dividend payouts and material writebacks of their COVID-19 related bad debt provisions, signaling to investors increased confidence in their earnings outlook. Long-term bond yields were up 77 basis points in response to stronger economic activity flowing through to the market, re-pricing higher inflation expectations. In this environment, banks should benefit with improved earnings growth.

Resources maintained their positive momentum with the global economic recovery continuing to gather pace. Miners including BHP (+9.6%) were driven by a resilient iron ore price and announcements of larger dividends at their recent February results. Energy sector Santos +14.2% and Oil Search +10.7% were also stronger performers as the Brent Crude price increased to US$64 per barrel.

Information Technology was the laggard sector, delivering around 10% in the March quarter, with several companies not matching their high expectations (e.g. Appen in the recent results period). Investors are pivoting away from COVID-beneficiary sectors like IT and Healthcare while shifting investor attention to cyclically exposed stocks and higher bond yields, which detract from the value of their long-term cash flows.

Source: Lonsec / Financial Express

The macroeconomic backdrop has not changed significantly over the March quarter and some key growth drivers have been strengthened. Australia is better positioned economically than most developed countries, the unemployment rate has not reached the peak that was initially expected, and fiscal and monetary stimulus is fueling an economic recovery, reflected in rising house prices. Terms of trade, especially rising commodity prices, have significantly boosted national income. Consumer sentiment is expected to remain resilient and wealth effects will encourage a normalisation in the savings rate, which should benefit consumer spending. Overall, stocks that are largely exposed to the economic cycle are expected to be well supported in this environment.

From a valuation perspective, the Australian equity market is trading on a one-year forward P/E ratio of nearly 19 times, which is circa 25% above the long-term average of 14.5 times and appears stretched relative to historical averages. The overall market appears to be moderately expensive and earnings growth needs to continue its upward trajectory over the next 12 months to support some of these elevated prices.

Issued by Lonsec Research Pty Ltd ABN 11 151 658 561 AFSL 421 445 (Lonsec). Warning: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Any advice is General Advice without considering the objectives, financial situation and needs of any person. Before making a decision read the PDS and consider your financial circumstances or seek personal advice. Disclaimer: Lonsec gives no warranty of accuracy or completeness of information in this document, which is compiled from information from public and third-party sources. Opinions are reasonably held by Lonsec at compilation. Lonsec assumes no obligation to update this document after publication. Except for liability which can’t be excluded, Lonsec, its directors, officers, employees and agents disclaim all liability for any error, inaccuracy, misstatement or omission, or any loss suffered through relying on the document or any information. ©2021 Lonsec. All rights reserved. This report may also contain third party material that is subject to copyright. To the extent that copyright subsists in a third party it remains with the original owner and permission may be required to reuse the material. Any unauthorised reproduction of this information is prohibited.

April 7, 2021/by Gordon Toy

Insights, News & Insights

Market Overview, Portfolio Performance & Positioning Update

Market Overview, Portfolio Performance & Positioning Update

Given the recent market conditions – increased volatility, fear of inflation, rotation away from growth and quality stocks towards cyclical and value stocks – we asked Lonsec’s Chief Investment Officer Lukasz de Pourbaix to give us an update on his views of the market and how Lonsec’s portfolios are positioned for the environment ahead. In this video, Lukasz provides an overview of Lonsec’s current asset allocation positions following the most recent Asset Allocation Investment Committee meeting, and explains how Lonsec’s portfolios are positioned to manage risk and recovery.

Transcript:

Hello, my name is Lukasz de Pourbaix, I’m the Executive Director and CIO of Lonsec Investment Solutions. Today, I wanted to give you an interim performance update on our managed account portfolios, and specifically in relation to market events, which has certainly caused increased volatility in markets.

What has occurred in markets during the last 12 months?

So what have we been seeing in markets over the course of this year? And I guess the one thing I’d point to is, we’ve seen US 10-Year Treasuries go up from about 0.9% at the end of last year to above 1.6%. So what does that mean? It means that, on the positive side, signals that the economy is recovering, and our view would be that we are seeing signs of economic recovery, we’re seeing improved payroll data, we’re seeing improved productivity numbers. So there’s a lot of things that are pointing to the right direction in terms of economic recovery. But at the same time, what the market has been factoring in is the prospect of inflation. So with all the stimulus, we’ve just seen the US approve $1.9 trillion worth of stimulus coupled with all the other stimulus we’ve seen over the course of the last 12 months, the market is worried that all of this stimulus and the accelerated recovery, will cause inflation. So from a market perspective, we’ve seen, and it started probably in November last year, a big rotation away from those parts of the market that are more growth focus, towards more of your value, your cyclical type of exposures, and the rotation has been very sharp and very pronounced. So if you think about the Australian market, for example, resources, and banks were up about 30% over the course of November last year. Conversely, sectors such as healthcare were down over that same period. So we’ve seen a very abrupt rotation. And if you sort of step back and think that for the last 10 years or so those cyclical and, in particular, value stocks have really struggled.

How have our Lonsec portfolios been positioned?

So from a portfolio perspective, if we look across the board, so the Listed diversified portfolios, certainly did have a bias towards that quality end of the market. So in terms of stocks, those stocks that have had solid balance sheets, have navigated the COVID environment very strongly. So if you think about some of those stocks, we actually had no stocks in the portfolio that needed to raise capital over that period, which goes to point out how strong some of those companies are. But what has performed well since November are some of those stocks that arguably are not in that quality part of the market, as well as some of your cyclical exposures. So the portfolios all in all have had underperformance notably, I’d say over the last three months. Now, we’re very well aware of this underperformance. And we recently had our investment selection committee, along with our asset allocation committee. And from a broad portfolio positioning perspective, so if you think back in terms of from an asset allocation perspective, how we’ve been positioned, we continue to think that risk asset, so equities, are where you want to be at this point in time, relative to bonds. And that equities still provide a reasonable risk premium to bond assets. So we’ve been underweight bonds, and we’ve been overweight risk assets. And we continue to believe that, over the medium term, that’s where you want to be positioned and the portfolios remain positioned in that way.

How are we diversifying our portfolios by investment strategy?

From a bottom-up perspective, in terms of investment selection, as I noted, we have been hurt over the last three months because of that bias towards some of the quality and defensive positions. And those positions have been there, from the perspective that while we think that markets and risk assets, in particular, are going to do well, we also note that there is the risk that the recovery may not be as strong, and we may see some stumbling blocks. So we do still want some of the defensiveness within the portfolios. Having said that, we are reviewing the portfolios at the moment and if you look at the Listed portfolios, where we’re focusing on is – do we add some more cyclical type of exposures just to balance some of the risks within the portfolio. So that is an area that we are exploring, particularly on the global equity side. We have already incrementally been doing that on the Australian equity part of the portfolio. And the other key area we’re focusing on is the bond part of that portfolio, which does have significant exposure to the duration or be it, we are underweight fixed interest. And we are looking at ways to further diversify the portfolios away from duration or interest rate risk within that defensive part of the portfolio. So, you recall, we did add Ardea back in January of this year, and that has proven to be a really good diversifier in this market environment. And we’re looking to further broaden that out. One of the challenges is obviously just identifying products because, in that bond space, the non-duration type of exposure is a little bit more limited. But we will be looking to adjust that part of the portfolio as well.

Are we making changes to our asset allocation positions?

So from a Listed portfolio perspective, overall, we’re relatively comfortable where we’re positioned. If you think about beyond these last three months, longer-term we still think that we will be in a lower rate environment. While we think inflation will go up marginally over the coming months, our base case is that we’re not going to see out-of-control inflation. So if you think about an environment where all things being equal, rates are still low, inflation is under control, and central banks are continuing to support markets, whether it be through monetary policy or fiscal policy, that type of dynamic is still conducive to having that long term quality exposure within the portfolios. So we are cognizant of the recent performance. Over the long term, though, we do think the portfolios are well-positioned in terms of the market environment we’re heading into. And we are making some adjustments just to limit some of those risks within the portfolios. If I just touch on very briefly in the other portfolios, our Multi-Asset portfolios, just by nature of the construct, and the ability to use different types of funds, have had a little bit more of that cyclical exposure, that value exposure, notably, managers like Allan Gray, for example, we have had less duration risk within those portfolios. One of the things we are looking at also in those portfolios is again reducing some of those more defensive exposures, keeping some in there because that is part of our process, as part of managing risk. But also just adjusting that given that our view on equities has become more constructive. And certainly, as I said before, we think that relative to bonds, equities will continue to look attractive.

We are here to support you.

So thank you for taking the time today to listen to this video. We will be coming out with more material to help you with your conversations with your clients relating to the portfolios. We’re working on a frequently asked questions document, which will delve a little bit deeper into some of the things I spoke about. And as always, we’ll do our quarterly update on our portfolios which again will provide an update on the performance and positioning. And with that, I hope you found today’s video useful and I want to thank you again for your support for the portfolios, and if there are any questions, please get in contact with our BDM team.

IMPORTANT NOTICE: This document is published by Lonsec Investment Solutions Pty Ltd ACN 608 837 583, a Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR 1236821) (LIS) of Lonsec Research Pty Ltd ABN 11 151 658 561 AFSL 421 445 (Lonsec Research). LIS creates the model portfolios it distributes using the investment research provided by Lonsec Research but LIS has not had any involvement in the investment research process for Lonsec Research. LIS and Lonsec Research are owned by Lonsec Holdings Pty Ltd ACN 151 235 406. Please read the following before making any investment decision about any financial product mentioned in this document.

DISCLOSURE AT THE DATE OF PUBLICATION: Lonsec Research receives a fee from the relevant fund manager or product issuer(s) for researching financial products (using objective criteria) which may be referred to in this document. Lonsec Research may also receive a fee from the fund manager or product issuer(s) for subscribing to research content and other Lonsec Research services. LIS receives a fee for providing the model portfolios to financial services organisations and professionals. LIS’ and Lonsec Research’s fees are not linked to the financial product rating(s) outcome or the inclusion of the financial product(s) in model portfolios. LIS and Lonsec Research and their representatives and/or their associates may hold any financial product(s) referred to in this document, but details of these holdings are not known to the Lonsec Research analyst(s).

WARNINGS: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Any express or implied rating or advice presented in this document is limited to general advice and based solely on consideration of the investment merits of the financial product(s) alone, without taking into account the investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs (“financial circumstances”) of any particular person. Before making an investment decision based on the rating or advice, the reader must consider whether it is personally appropriate in light of his or her financial circumstances or should seek independent financial advice on its appropriateness. If the financial advice relates to the acquisition or possible acquisition of a particular financial product, the reader should obtain and consider the Investment Statement or the Product Disclosure Statement for each financial product before making any decision about whether to acquire the financial product.

DISCLAIMER: No representation, warranty or undertaking is given or made in relation to the accuracy or completeness of the information presented in this document, which is drawn from public information not verified by LIS. The information contained in this document is current as at the date of publication. Financial conclusions, ratings and advice are reasonably held at the time of publication but subject to change without notice. LIS assumes no obligation to update this document following publication. Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, LIS and Lonsec Research, their directors, officers, employees and agents disclaim all liability for any error or inaccuracy in, misstatement or omission from, this document or any loss or damage suffered by the reader or any other person as a consequence of relying upon it.

Copyright © 2021 Lonsec Investment Solutions Pty Ltd ACN 608 837 583 (LIS). This document may also contain third party supplied material that is subject to copyright. The same restrictions that apply to LIS copyrighted material, apply to such third-party content.

March 23, 2021/by Lukasz de Pourbaix

Insights, News & Insights

As our values change, so does the investment product market

The investment product market has evolved over the decades to cater to a wide range of investor needs and objectives. Now, as more and more investors wish to see their portfolio align with their values, the product market is evolving once again to deliver a range of responsible investment solutions.

Lonsec has observed a significant increase in demand for responsible investment solutions over the past two years. Combined with this we have seen a proliferation of investment products adopting ESG, sustainable or impact investing principles within their investment processes. This product evolution has extended beyond equities and now covers most key asset classes, including fixed interest and infrastructure.

We expect the range of products across asset classes and investment structures (i.e. managed funds and ETFs) to continue to grow. The increased demand and subsequent growth in available products have allowed portfolio professionals like Lonsec to construct a diversified investment solution to cater to this market, which was not possible even two years ago when most products were focused primarily on equities.

We believe that the increasing demand has been driven by two key factors that have been instrumental in shifting responsible investing from a niche market to one where there are clear structural tailwinds supporting the adoption of responsible investment solutions.

The first has been a clear change in investor values. Investors are increasingly incorporating their own views on issues such as the environment within their investment decision-making process. While this is not a new phenomenon, it has taken on a new life over the past two years as we see more millennials enter the investment landscape. This is a generation that has been acutely aware of environmental and social issues throughout their lives and believe everyone has a role to play in improving the world, including through their individual investment decisions.

In a 2018 survey of high-net-worth millennials published in US Trust’s Insights on Wealth and Worth, 87% of respondents considered a company’s ESG track record an important consideration in their decision about whether to invest or not. Then you have natural disasters like bushfires—still fresh in Australians’ minds—which have prompted us to become more aware of the type of investments we want exposure to and which we want to avoid. Of course, it’s not just millennials driving this shift. Investors of all ages—from those entering the workforce to those nearing or in retirement—are proactively seeking investments that they believe will benefit future generations.

The second driver for increased demand has been changes in financial adviser behaviour as a result of the Future of Financial Advice reforms of 2012 (FOFA) and subsequently the Royal Commission into the financial services industry, which delivered its final report in 2019.

Focus on best interest duties and the need for advisers to be able to provide advice specific to investors’ needs has been instrumental in focusing adviser attention to responsible investing. In a June 2020 paper ‘Building Stronger Client Relationships with Responsible Investing’, Franklin Templeton noted that 88% of advisers see responsible investing as a meaningful way to evaluate investments. They also found that 84% of Australian advisers cite at least some level of fiduciary concern related to selecting responsible investments, compared to 61% of advisers globally. Remarkably, 88% of surveyed advisers expect to increase allocation to responsible investing strategies over the next two years.

Lonsec recently conducted a telephone survey of several advice practices, and the consensus view was that between 20% and 30% of clients actively communicate preference regarding responsible investing. For example, they may have a view on the environment and climate change, or views on industries such as gambling and alcohol.

Looking further afield we believe that responsible investing will become more mainstream with ESG and sustainable investment principles becoming an expectation rather than a nice-to-have. There is precedent for this within the institutional investment market. In Europe, fund managers will generally not be awarded investment mandates if they have not integrated ESG and increasingly sustainable elements within their investment processes.

We have already witnessed this in the wholesale space whereby fund managers who do not actively market themselves as ‘responsible’ managers will nevertheless exclude certain harmful industries such as tobacco. It’s clear that the trend towards responsible investing is heading in a positive direction, with all participants actively engaging in the sector. In the future, responsible investment will not be merely another option for investors to select from, but rather a core part of our investment toolkit.

IMPORTANT NOTICE: This document is published by Lonsec Investment Solutions Pty Ltd ACN 608 837 583, a Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR 1236821) (LIS) of Lonsec Research Pty Ltd ABN 11 151 658 561 AFSL 421 445 (Lonsec Research). LIS creates the model portfolios it distributes using the investment research provided by Lonsec Research but LIS has not had any involvement in the investment research process for Lonsec Research. LIS and Lonsec Research are owned by Lonsec Holdings Pty Ltd ACN 151 235 406. Please read the following before making any investment decision about any financial product mentioned in this document.

DISCLOSURE AT THE DATE OF PUBLICATION: Lonsec Research receives a fee from the relevant fund manager or product issuer(s) for researching financial products (using objective criteria) which may be referred to in this document. Lonsec Research may also receive a fee from the fund manager or product issuer(s) for subscribing to research content and other Lonsec Research services. LIS receives a fee for providing the model portfolios to financial services organisations and professionals. LIS’ and Lonsec Research’s fees are not linked to the financial product rating(s) outcome or the inclusion of the financial product(s) in model portfolios. LIS and Lonsec Research and their representatives and/or their associates may hold any financial product(s) referred to in this document, but details of these holdings are not known to the Lonsec Research analyst(s).

WARNINGS: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Any express or implied rating or advice presented in this document is limited to general advice and based solely on consideration of the investment merits of the financial product(s) alone, without taking into account the investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs (“financial circumstances”) of any particular person. Before making an investment decision based on the rating or advice, the reader must consider whether it is personally appropriate in light of his or her financial circumstances or should seek independent financial advice on its appropriateness. If the financial advice relates to the acquisition or possible acquisition of a particular financial product, the reader should obtain and consider the Investment Statement or the Product Disclosure Statement for each financial product before making any decision about whether to acquire the financial product.

DISCLAIMER: No representation, warranty or undertaking is given or made in relation to the accuracy or completeness of the information presented in this document, which is drawn from public information not verified by LIS. The information contained in this document is current as at the date of publication. Financial conclusions, ratings and advice are reasonably held at the time of publication but subject to change without notice. LIS assumes no obligation to update this document following publication. Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, LIS and Lonsec Research, their directors, officers, employees and agents disclaim all liability for any error or inaccuracy in, misstatement or omission from, this document or any loss or damage suffered by the reader or any other person as a consequence of relying upon it.

Copyright © 2021 Lonsec Investment Solutions Pty Ltd ACN 608 837 583 (LIS). This document may also contain third party supplied material that is subject to copyright. The same restrictions that apply to LIS copyrighted material, apply to such third-party content.

March 23, 2021/by Lukasz de Pourbaix

Insights, News & Insights

Lonsec Investment Solutions – February 2021 Reporting Season Insights

In this video, Dan Moradi, Portfolio Manager for Listed Products, provides an update on the Australian equity market following a very interesting reporting season and takes an in-depth look at how various sectors and companies performed.

The February reporting season results were better than initially expected, particularly if we look at the middle of last year when earnings expectations were experiencing significant downgrades in the midst of the COVID-19 related lockdowns. Since then, the downturn has not been as severe as expected, and we’ve seen estimates for FY21 being upgraded, indicating relatively strong balance sheets across the market and to some extent, improved confidence of corporate boards in setting up payout dividend ratios.

Overall, we seem to be turning a corner with the majority of the companies expected to return to growth over FY21 and 22. Although despite these earnings rebound, some companies aren’t out of the woods yet.

Transcript:

I hope everyone is safe and well. Today I’ll be providing an update on the Australian equity markets following a very interesting profit reporting season, which was much better than initial expectations, particularly if we look at the middle of last year when earnings expectations were experiencing significant downgrades in the midst of the COVID related lockdowns around the globe. Obviously, since then the downturn has not been as severe as expected, and we’ve seen estimates for FY21 getting upgraded, particularly over the latter part of 2020 and heading into the reporting season this year. At the market level, overall EPS for 2021 grew by around 5% over the month of the upgrades while the dividend expectations grew by around 10%. However, despite the upgrades, market gains during the month were modest as the positive conditions were most likely priced into the lead-up of the reporting season. At the sector level, this was really driven by upgrades within the financials and resources sectors, while the technology and industrials saw the largest EPS downgrades. Aside from the more upbeat outlook statements dividends surprised to the upside, indicating relatively strong balance sheets across the market and to some extent, improving the confidence of boards in setting up their dividend payout ratios. Once again, this was driven by the banks and resources which saw dividend expectations upgraded by 12% to 15%, obviously driven by high commodity prices within the resources and the removal of the restrictions on banks. At the stock level, within the ASX200 universe we had the likes of James Hardie, Seek, Cochlear, and Commonwealth Bank reports stronger than expected performances, whilst Challenger, Ampol, Center Group, and Appen delivered relatively weaker results.

In terms of the themes that we saw, unsurprisingly COVID-19 and its impact on the corporate sector as a whole was the main discussion point again during the reporting season. However, there was a much more improved tone in the company’s communications to the market in comparison to what we saw in August last year. In absolute terms, the pandemic has had and continues to have a material impact both positive and negative on various segments of the market, the extent to which still remains unclear. Companies within the retail, e-commerce, technology, and metals and mining sectors have benefited greatly from the shifting consumer behavior experienced over the past year. While obviously the supply chain disruptions and the potential inflationary impacts of the pandemic have been a positive tailwind for commodities and the metals and mining sector as a whole. On the other side of the spectrum, the tourism, infrastructure, retail landlords, insurance, bank, and the energy sectors took the brunt of the earnings in FY20. But all seem to be turning the corner with the majority of the companies expected to return to growth over FY21 and FY22. But despite these earnings rebound, some of these companies are not really out of the woods yet. And it may take a few years for conditions to normalise. And this is likely to be reflected in a high degree of ongoing volatility for these companies.

Some of the other key themes that we saw during the reporting season was the ongoing impact of COVID-19 on supply chains, which as an example is impacting inventories in a number of sectors and this is likely to have an inflationary impact on these companies and sectors until these issues are resolved. We’ve also seen a significant move in bond yields. So with the 10-year bond yields almost doubling since December. Whilst this doesn’t have an immediate impact on company earnings, the market is really reassessing the sustainability of rising bond yields and its impact on the valuation of the high-duration growth companies like technology and healthcare businesses and also the lower Beta defensive companies in infrastructure and staple sectors. This concern has been a major driver of the underperformance of these sectors since December last year and probably going to continue in the short term.

Lastly, the strength of the companies in the resources sector was another theme evident during the reporting season. The strengthened commodity prices and the very strong balance sheet in the sector. So the likes of BHP, Rio, Tinto, and Fortescue all beat dividend expectations. This trend does look like it can continue over the short term, obviously subject to the underlying commodity price movements, but we do see upside risk to earnings within the resources segment with the attractive yields on offer, probably set to continue over 2021.

Looking ahead, at this stage consensus estimates are expecting a 33% rebound in earnings in FY21 as a whole, and this has improved from around 10% after the August reporting season last year. Now if this was to eventuate this means that the market earnings have gone back to pre COVID levels, which is a remarkable development and one of the sharpest earnings recoveries in history. From a dividend perspective, the pace of the recovery has improved, but expectations so far in play will take a slightly longer period to return to pre-COVID levels. But I think there is an upside risk to that scenario, particularly if the worst of COVID is already behind this and commodity prices remain strong. So this does imply that from a valuation perspective, the market is currently trading at a PE ratio of around 18 times with a dividend yield of 3.8%. And I’d say both would be expected to improve in 2022. In terms of what’s in store for the rest of the year, obviously, the path of the pandemic will play a large part in the outcome, but the momentum has definitely turned positive. On the earnings front, consumer confidence remains solid. The tapering of the government stimulus at the end of March this year will provide further insight into the shape of the recovery. And the RBA stance on being on hold until 2024 is still a very positive tailwind for risk assets. In terms of risks, this is a very uneven recession and recovery and over a very short period of time, the after-effects of such could result in some unintended consequences which can potentially result in periods of elevated volatility potentially over the remainder of the year. Thank you

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Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This is general advice, which doesn’t consider your personal circumstances. Consider these and always read the product disclosure statement or seek professional advice prior to making any decision about a financial product. While care has been taken to prepare the content of this video, LIS makes no representation or warranty to the accuracy or completeness of the information presented, which is drawn from public information not verified by LIS. The information contained in this video is current as at the date of publication.

March 15, 2021/by Danial Moradi