Archive for year: 2019

As it continues to grapple with the challenges facing retirees, the Australian retirement industry in some ways resembles a research institution―continually coming up with ideas for solutions to those challenges, testing them, then implementing them and reviewing the results.

For those involved in such an enterprise, it’s always interesting to see how well (or badly) those solutions work in practice, and the extent to which they’ve validated their research hypotheses.

At AllianceBernstein, we’ve been running the numbers on an investment strategy we launched five years ago, primarily for investors saving for retirement.

The strategy was developed in collaboration with a major Australian superannuation fund which had asked us to look for ways to “smooth the ride” for its members―that is, to help them earn meaningful investment returns while reducing the downside risk in their portfolios.

Reducing downside risk is, of course, important for investors who are in retirement or approaching it: the less their portfolios lose, the more money they have left over to deal with future market drawdowns, and the risk that they might live longer than expected.

There are several aspects to the strategy but, at its heart, is a portfolio of low-volatility stocks and a focus on aiming to limit downside risk to 50% of what the market experiences, while seeking to capture 80% of the upside when the market recovers.

Our research indicated that this might be achievable by combining careful stock selection (about which more later) with the so-called low-volatility paradox (the well-attested fact that a portfolio of low-volatility stocks can outperform the market over time on a risk-adjusted basis).

It’s been an eventful five years with several market ups and downs and our research hypothesis has been well tested. What have we learned?

SMOOTHER, BUT STILL THE OCCASIONAL BUMP

Pleasingly, the strategy has performed well, outperforming the market over the period (Display) and providing investors with a smoother ride, particularly when the market fell.

Downside Protection Generated Outperformance

April 1, 2014 to March 31, 2019

Source: S&P Dow Jones and AB; see Performance Disclosure.

As of March 31, 2019

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Based on a representative Managed Volatility Equities account vs. S&P/ASX 300 Franking Credit Adjusted Daily Total Return (Tax-Exempt)

The returns presented above are gross of fees. The results do not reflect the deduction of investment-management fees or Fund costs. Performance figures include the value of any franking (or imputation) credits received. Numbers may not sum due to rounding. Periods of more than one year are annualised.

*For determining months when index is up or down, performance of S&P/ASX 300 (i.e., excluding franking credits) is used.

In fact, the strategy’s buffer on the downside contributed most to outperformance: the portfolio’s mean monthly return was 1.4% higher than the index when the market dipped and 0.3% lower when the market rose.

It’s interesting to note, too, that the strategy exceeded our aims in terms of upside/downside performance, with the portfolio suffering only 47% of the downside when the market fell (compared to our 50% target) and capturing 90% of the upside (our target was 80%).

There is a compounding effect at work here: limited downside means that the portfolio has less ground to make up when the market recovers, and this can contribute to outperformance over time.

It turns out, however, that even a strategy carefully designed to withstand volatility can experience the occasional bump, as happened when banks and mining companies performed very strongly after Donald Trump was elected US President in November 2016.

Bank and mining stocks tend to be volatile and, because they don’t figure highly in our low-volatility strategy, they were underweighted by our portfolio at the time. Financials and materials, of course, are the Australian share market’s biggest sectors. As they drove the market up, our portfolio lagged.

But the effect was short-lived and had relatively little impact on overall performance, appearing to validate one part of our hypothesis, that a low-volatility portfolio can outperform over time. What about the other part, regarding stock selection and portfolio management?

THE BIGGEST LESSON OF ALL

This consisted of five basic principles:

  • choose low-volatility stocks where the underlying businesses are high quality, with good cash flows and strong balance sheets, and the shares are reasonably valued
  • use fundamental research to avoid ‘volatility traps’, or the risk that idiosyncratic factors―such as a takeover bid―can make a normally stable stock suddenly volatile
  • ignore market benchmarks when constructing the portfolio: this makes it easier to focus on low-volatility stocks, and to avoid the volatility inherent in Australian equity indices
  • invest up to 20% of the portfolio in global stocks as a way of reducing risk, and making up for the necessity of limiting the portfolio’s access to the Australian market
  • manage macroeconomic risk―such as the potential impact on the portfolio of Brexit or the US-China trade wars―thoughtfully, so that the removal of one risk doesn’t inadvertently create exposure to another

Applying these principles consistently contributed positively to performance over the period.

Perhaps the biggest lesson we learned, however, is that it’s possible to deliver investors above-market returns with below-market volatility.

We’re happy to share that knowledge, and the benefits it delivers, with our colleagues in the industry who are seeking to create a better retirement future for Australians.

The views expressed herein do not constitute research, investment advice or trade recommendations and do not necessarily represent the views of all AB portfolio-management teams and are subject to revision over time.

INFORMATION ABOUT THE AB MANAGED VOLATILITY EQUITIES FUND AllianceBernstein Investment Management Australia Limited (ABN 58 007 212 606, AFSL 230 683) (“ABIMAL”) is the responsible entity of the AllianceBernstein Managed Volatility Equities Fund (ARSN 099 739 447) (“Fund” or “AB Managed Volatility Equities Fund”) and is the issuer of units in the Fund. AllianceBernstein Australia Limited (“ABAL”) ABN 53 095 022 718, AFSL 230 698 is the investment manager of the Fund. ABAL in turn has delegated a portion of the investment manager function to AllianceBernstein L.P.(“AB”). The Fund’s Product Disclosure Statement (“PDS”) is available at the following link https://web.alliancebernstein.com/funds/au/equity/managed-volatility-equities.htm

or by contacting the client services team at AllianceBernstein Australia Limited at (02) 9255 1299.

Neither this document nor the information contained in it are intended to take the place of professional advice. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future performance and projections, although based on current information, may not be realised. Information, forecasts and opinions can change without notice and neither ABIMAL or ABAL guarantees the accuracy of the information at any particular time. Although care has been exercised in compiling the information contained in this report, neither ABIMAL or ABAL warrants that this document is free from errors, inaccuracies or omissions.

This document is released by AllianceBernstein Australia Limited ABN 53 095 022 718, AFSL 230 698.

DISCLAIMER

This document is provided solely for informational purposes and is not an offer to buy or sell securities. The information, forecasts and opinions set out in this document have not been prepared for any recipient’s specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. Neither this document nor the information contained in it are intended to take the place of professional advice. You should not take action on specific issues based on the information contained in the attached without first obtaining professional advice. The views expressed herein do not constitute research, investment advice or trade recommendations and do not necessarily represent the views of all AB portfolio-management teams. Current analysis does not guarantee future results.

INFORMATION ABOUT ALLIANCEBERNSTEIN

AllianceBernstein (AB) is a leading global investment management and research firm. We bring together a wide range of insights, expertise and innovations to advance the interests of our institutional investors, individuals and private clients in major world markets. AB offers a comprehensive range of research, portfolio management, wealth management and client-service offices around the world, reflecting our global capabilities and the needs of our clients. As at March 31, 2019, our firm managed US$555 billion in assets, including US$257 billion on behalf of institutions. These include pension plans, superannuation schemes, charities, insurance companies, central banks, and governments in more than 45 countries. This document is released by AllianceBernstein Australia Limited (“ABAL”) ABN 53 095 022 718, AFSL 230 698. AllianceBernstein Australia Limited (ABAL) is a wholly owned subsidiary of the AllianceBernstein, L.P. Group (AB).

An in-depth analysis of the new social security means test assessment of lifetime income streams and the significant opportunities it presents for retirement income advice.

To access the insights, please click here.

Imagine a baby is born in Europe at the very moment you finish this article. That child can expect to live for two minutes longer than one born as you finish this sentence. Increasing lifespans threaten to topple the current pensions model. But, then again, maybe it’s time for a change.

To access the insights, please click here.

 

What are the real underlying structural forces bewildering the RBA? Is cash the king once again? Find out more about these and other interesting topics in Pendal’s latest review of fixed interest markets.

To access the insights, please click here.

 

 

AB’s latest insights update shows that markets have snapped back from a tough 4Q18.

Click here to view the article.

Leading research house and managed account provider Lonsec will work with financial advisers seeking to transition from conflicted advice models and introduce a greater degree of independence in their investment decisions.

Lonsec is offering to acquire in-house managed portfolios from advice licensees to enable them to take advantage of best practice governance principles and Lonsec’s experienced team of portfolio construction experts.

With a shift currently taking place in the advice industry in the wake of the Royal Commission into Financial Services, Lonsec said advisers are acutely aware of the need to present a professional, conflict-free advice environment for their clients.

“Advice models have come under a great deal of scrutiny by the Royal Commission as well as the regulators and the community,” said Lonsec CEO Charlie Haynes.

“The Royal Commission may have stopped short of a ban on vertically integrated or conflicted financial advice, but advisers know they need to start moving quickly in this direction to meet community expectations.”

While it is becoming increasingly unpalatable for licensees or advisers to charge portfolio management fees for in-house managed accounts, advisers are also cognisant of regulatory developments.

An empowered ASIC is investigating how platform providers ensure the integrity of managed accounts constructed by advice licensees who might lack the expertise or resources to act as specialist investment managers.

For many advisers, the question is how best to manage conflicts, either by outsourcing the portfolio construction process or introducing a greater degree of independence in their investment decisions.

Lonsec is proposing to acquire the investment management rights from existing managed account providers, enabling them to focus on the provision of advice without conflict.

Licensees have the flexibility to retain their existing branding, investment mandate and platform, or transition to Lonsec’s own professionally managed portfolios incorporating best ideas and insights from Australia’s leading investment product research house.

“An outsourced managed account solution is becoming increasingly popular, not just in order to reduce conflicts but to allow advisers to focus on their clients’ needs and aspirations while leaving the investment process to specialised portfolio managers,” said Mr Haynes.

An equity-based investment fund that aims to deliver dependable income is likely to deviate significantly from the Australian share market index. It requires an active approach to manage a set of very different risks.

For a typical return-seeking equity fund aiming to outperform the index, the main risk is ‘relative risk’ associated with the portfolio deviating from the index and underperforming this benchmark. But what really matters for income investors is the risk that the fund does not deliver a sustainable and growing income stream.

A different set of risks requires a different approach.

Risks specific to the income investor

Income investors face several unique risks that are often not acknowledged in traditional investment literature:

  • Income level risk

Typically, income investors aim to generate an income stream that enables them to maintain their standard of living. This is a critical issue for retirees, and to achieve this goal they must tackle income level risk – the danger that the income paid by an investment falls in response to interest rate changes and other factors.

For example, in 2010 one of Australia’s leading banks offered its customers a five-year term deposit rate of 8%. Today, the rate offered is below 3.5% and around 2% for a more popular 90-day term. Therefore, for those investors who have relied on short-term cash rates to provide for their needs, the steady fall in interest rates over this decade has exposed them to heightened income risk. Of course, living costs continue to rise.

In today’s lower interest rate world, term deposit investors need to invest larger sums of capital than historically to achieve the same dollar return. Additionally, these lower rates impact the level of return available from annuity type products and create significant challenges to overcome.

  • Inflation risk

Inflation risk refers to the risk that the real value of an income stream declines as the cost of living rises. For investors to be able to maintain their spending power and to protect, as well as maintain, their living standards they must ensure their income stream grows at least in line with inflation. This is particularly important for people in retirement as they are likely to incur increased costs in areas such as healthcare and aged care services.

To illustrate inflation risk, imagine investing in a term deposit that has an interest rate of 2% p.a., when inflation is compounding at 2.5% annually. In this scenario, even though an investor is earning a nominal return of 2% a year, inflation is eroding 2.5% of that, leaving the investor with a real (inflation adjusted) return of negative 0.5%.

Given retirees will usually have a relatively fixed capital base, inflation protection has to be a central consideration in any medium to long-term income oriented financial plan.

  • Income volatility risk

Investors worry about movements in the capital value of their investments but for income investors, we believe it is more important to focus on the volatility of the income stream. Putting this a different way – what matters most for income investors is that their investments deliver a sustainable and growing income stream – and the main risk they face is that it does not.

For income-oriented investment solutions, reducing the volatility of the income stream in search of reliable income delivery should be a primary consideration.

Chart 1: Income volatility over the last 15 years – equities and cash

Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Source: Martin Currie Australia, Factset; as of 30 June 2018.*Average ‘special’ rate (all terms).

The chart above compares the volatility of Australian shares (prices and dividends) and term deposit income over the last 15 years. As you can see, the actual volatility of the income stream from term deposits is more than double the volatility of the dividend stream from Australian equities. In addition, the income from dividends has been materially higher.

With this backdrop, equity income investors are increasingly valuing the more dependable nature of dividend streams especially from higher quality companies and are worrying less about short-term capital volatility associated with share markets.

Asset managers have helped with this process through educating investors on the opportunities and risks of equity-based strategies and by developing specialist funds to enable them to benefit from these attractive income streams.

  • Longevity risk

Australians are living longer. As the chart below shows, the average life expectancy of Australian men and women is now over 90 years, having increased by an average of around 20 years since 1960. So, the probability (risk) that we outlive our savings is growing – this is known as longevity risk.

Chart 2: Australian life expectancy (at birth)

Source: Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, Australian Treasury Intergenerational Report, ABS, March 2018

And not only are we living longer but more and more of us are entering retirement.

Over the next 40 years Australia’s population will experience a major shift – a far greater proportion of the population will be older – as the dominant baby-boomer generation moves into retirement, and these older Australians will be living longer. This combination will significantly increase the nation’s pension expenses and upset the balance between retirees and the working age people who are funding the pension system. Currently, for every person aged 65 and over there are 4.5 people of workforce age (15 to 64) contributing their taxes to help fund pensions. This is forecast to decrease to around 2.7 people per retiree by 2055, putting an increased strain on the entire system[1].

This all points towards continued growth in demand for income generating investment solutions, particularly given the prevailing ‘lower for longer’ view of interest rates. In this world, equities can carry much of the burden, especially funds that utilise proven active management focused on uncovering the highest quality, most sustainable, dividend streams.

The real risk/return trade-off for income investors

For the reasons outlined, investors seeking income need solutions that can generate a yield high enough to meet their requirements today, that is sustainable over the long-term, that can be expected to grow at least in line with inflation, whilst also protecting their hard-earned capital base. In our view, this requires a change in investor behaviour and the need to challenge some traditional investment approaches.

Given these specific risks, what is the true risk/return trade-off that applies to income focused portfolios?

The traditional approach to investing looks at the potential total return of an investment (capital plus income) and compares it to the expected risk. The aim is to create a portfolio that can deliver the best possible return for a given amount of expected risk. But this only makes sense if your investment objective is focused on total return. If you are an income investor, your objective is to generate a sustainable and growing income stream. Hence a different approach to investing and portfolio construction is required as low risk in this context is defined as income sustainability.

Chart 3: Expected income versus income risk

 

Source: Martin Currie Australia, ASFA, Factset; as of 30 June 2018. Income is calculated using manager assumptions for each asset class – because of this, the returns quoted are estimated figures and are therefore not guaranteed. *Data calculated for representative Legg Mason Martin Currie Australia Equity Income (1), Real Income (2) and Diversified Income (3) accounts in A$ gross of management fee; gross performance data is presented without deducting investment advisory fees, broker commissions, or other expenses that reduce the return to investors. Assumes zero percent tax rate and full franking benefits realised in tax return.

The chart above examines how the major asset classes fare when the portfolio construction trade-off is redefined as expected income versus income risk (also known as the expected volatility of the income stream).  Term deposits have deeply disappointed as the dramatic drop in interest rates over the past decade means that the volatility of the income offered is high and actually worse than the income volatility from emerging market shares. Australian shares and A-REITs do much better and these can be improved still further by dedicated equity income strategies that target the companies that matter most to income investors – those with high dividends that are both sustainable in difficult economic conditions and are expected to increase in value over time.

Legg Mason Asset Management Australia Ltd (ABN 76 004 835 849 AFSL 240827) is part of the Global Legg Mason Inc. group. Any reference to ‘Legg Mason Australia’ is a reference to Legg Mason Asset Management Australia Limited. Legg Mason Australia is the responsible entity of the Legg Mason Martin Currie Equity Income Fund (ARSN 150 751 821), the Legg Mason Martin Currie Real Income Fund (ARSN 146 910 349) and the Legg Mason Martin Currie Diversified Income Fund (ARSN 169 461 116) (Funds) and Martin Currie Australia, a division of Legg Mason Australia, is the fund manager of these Funds. Before making an investment decision you should read the relevant Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) carefully and you need to consider, with or without the assistance of a financial advisor, whether such an investment is appropriate considering your particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances. The PDS is available and can be obtained by contacting Legg Mason Australia on 1800 679 541 or at www.leggmason.com.au. The information in this article is of a general nature only and is not intended to be, and is not, a complete or definitive statement of the matters described in it. The information does not constitute specific investment advice and does not include recommendations on any particular securities. Legg Mason Australia nor any of its related parties, guarantee the repayment of capital, rate of return or performance of any of the Legg Mason Funds referred to in this document.

[1] Australian Department of Treasury, 2015 Intergenerational Report, Chapter 1.

With Australia’s economic expansion under threat, house prices falling, and a wave of people set to retire over the next decade, financial advisers are under pressure to provide advice and solutions that can withstand Australia’s future retirement challenges.

Lonsec’s Retire program addresses the growing need for the financial services industry to work together to come up with those solutions and strategies.

Lonsec has been running its successful Retire program for more than five years, and it continues to go from strength to strength. The schedule of content and events planned for the next 12 months is the largest yet, with nine Retire Partners now on board to deliver in-depth retirement insights, including:                          

Alliance Bernstein Fidelity      Legg Mason
Allianz Retire+  Invesco  Pendal
Challenger Investors Mutual  Talaria

Lonsec’s Retire Partners will be providing a wealth of content to help advisers understand and deal with a range of issues faced by advisers and their clients.

The program will really kick off on May 7th with the major Lonsec Symposium event at the Westin, Sydney. With more than 600 advisers and wealth managers already registered, along with an impressive line-up of high-profile speakers and industry leaders, this is a must-attend event for all retirement professionals.

Mention the property market to Australian investors and the first thing they probably think of is the collapse in residential property values. These price falls are the result of a number of factors, some of which have also negatively affected Australian listed property (or A-REITs), while themes such as low wages growth and higher household indebtedness have had a significant impact on retail businesses and their landlords. The rise of online juggernauts like Amazon have further added to the pressure. But despite the challenges, listed property has held up remarkably well as a diversified source of income and capital growth.

The S&P/ASX 300 A-REIT index overall has delivered an impressive 26% return over the year to March, outperforming local and global shares. With retail assets representing almost 46% of the index, the underperformance of this sector is certainly more pronounced. With retail sales growth currently around 3.0% per annum—well below peak years over the last decade of over 5.6% and the average 3.6%—this is translating into weaker rental growth and higher capital expenditure to improve patronage at shopping centres. In general, the super-regional centres will continue to adapt well and neighbourhood (food-based) centres are also reasonably placed, while it is the smaller shopping centres and retail strips that are most vulnerable.

But while retail has struggled, other sectors have stepped up. Leading the way in terms of A-REIT earnings has been the diversified and industrial REITs, particularly those with funds management businesses. Charter Hall Group (+38% for the March quarter) and Amazon’s landlord Goodman Group (+26%) came out on top following similar gains over calendar year 2018. Lonsec notes that the elevated earnings of funds management (boosted by performance fees from cyclical high returns) and development activities can disappear when the cycle turns, as can the premium ratings for such stocks.

Nevertheless, Australian commercial property is being underpinned by a growing economy and infrastructure spending is benefiting the Sydney office sector in particular. Income growth of around 5.0% is expected for FY19, however the outlook is for some easing in rental growth (Sydney and Melbourne) with signs of recovery in Brisbane and Perth. Capitalisation rates are now at or below previous cyclical troughs (pricing peaks) and the next supply wave is 18–24 months away (new space predominantly pre-committed).

A-REITs versus shares (growth of $10,000 over five years)

Source: Financial Express, Lonsec

Even those A-REITs with residential exposure are still expecting a better second half of FY19 from previous sales coming through. However, the market is expecting a 10–20% fall in FY20 sales given the soft secondary residential price market, tighter lending, and potential changes to negative gearing for investors should the Labor Party win government at the 18 May federal election.

Nonetheless, Australia remains attractive for international and local investors, with one of the highest REIT market dividend yields of 4.7% and a +2.9% spread to 10-year bonds. The Australian dollar has been relatively steady during the March quarter. Given the recent in rise in A-REIT prices, valuations overall for the sector are around a 10% premium to NAV3 (although the pricing between sectors has retail/residential at a discount and office/industrial at a premium).

A-REIT member price gains (12 months to 31 March 2019)

Source: Bloomberg, Lonsec

Turning to the overseas market and Lonsec has observed some similar themes, but the macro setting has had a major influence, with bond rates continuing to soften in the March quarter and expectations of interest rate rises pushed back. As China-US trade war tensions eased, listed markets recovered from the December quarter pullback and more than made up for the negative returns of calendar year 2018. The discount that listed property markets were trading at has now dissipated and the sector is trading more in line with private market valuations.

The fundamentals in developed property markets remain much the same, with demand from tenants in retail assets the weakest and major retailers sporadically trimming outlet numbers or completely closing down. Investment performance from retail shares continues to lag, especially the industrial and logistics sector, which is attracting investment to improve the supply lines on the back of expanding online channels.

It is yet to be seen whether counter-cyclical investors that are chipping away at the deep value offered by retail property shares (especially the higher quality ones) will reap the benefits of an eventual normalising of relative values. Some fund managers believe there has been a permanent shift in investor valuations towards the industrial/logistics property sector. Lonsec is still of the view that global property markets are in the mature part of the cycle, although the tail end is being extended while inflation and interest rate pressures are kept at bay.

Some investors baulk at the thought of investing in listed property in an environment of rising interest rates, a softening residential housing market, and the rise of competition from the online world. While listed property is traditionally a defensive asset class with a negative correlation to bond yields, the sector has shown it is able to deliver in this environment, and the asset class has remained critical to investor portfolios as a means of achieving diversification and reliable income streams. While some sectors have certainly come under pressure, as a whole listed property has been a truly understated performer.

IMPORTANT NOTICE: This document is published by Lonsec Research Pty Ltd ABN 11 151 658 561, AFSL 421 445 (Lonsec).

Please read the following before making any investment decision about any financial product mentioned in this document.

Warnings: Lonsec reserves the right to withdraw this document at any time and assumes no obligation to update this document after the date of publication. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Any express or implied recommendation, rating, or advice presented in this document is a “class service” (as defined in the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (NZ)) or limited to “general advice” (as defined in the Corporations Act (C’th)) and based solely on consideration of data or the investment merits of the financial product(s) alone, without taking into account the investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs (“financial circumstances”) of any particular person.

Warnings and Disclosure in relation to particular products: If our general advice relates to the acquisition or possible acquisition or disposal or possible disposal of particular classes of assets or financial product(s), before making any decision the reader should obtain and consider more information, including the Investment Statement or Product Disclosure Statement and, where relevant, refer to Lonsec’s full research report for each financial product, including the disclosure notice. The reader must also consider whether it is personally appropriate in light of his or her financial circumstances or should seek further advice on its appropriateness. It is not a “personalised service” (as defined in the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (NZ)) and does not constitute a recommendation to purchase, hold, redeem or sell any financial product(s), and the reader should seek independent financial advice before investing in any financial product. Lonsec may receive a fee from Fund Manager or Product Issuer (s) for reviewing and rating individual financial product(s), using comprehensive and objective criteria. Lonsec may also receive fees from the Fund Manager or Financial Product Issuer (s) for subscribing to investment research content and services provided by Lonsec.

Disclaimer: This document is for the exclusive use of the person to whom it is provided by Lonsec and must not be used or relied upon by any other person. No representation, warranty or undertaking is given or made in relation to the accuracy or completeness of the information presented in this document, which is drawn from public information not verified by Lonsec. Conclusions, ratings and advice are reasonably held at the time of completion but subject to change without notice. Lonsec assumes no obligation to update this document following publication. Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Lonsec, its directors, officers, employees and agents disclaim all liability for any error, inaccuracy, misstatement or omission, or any loss suffered through relying on the information.

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Important information: Any express or implied rating or advice is limited to general advice, it doesn’t consider any personal needs, goals or objectives.  Before making any decision about financial products, consider whether it is personally appropriate for you in light of your personal circumstances. Obtain and consider the Product Disclosure Statement for each financial product and seek professional personal advice before making any decisions regarding a financial product.