In this month’s edition of Portfolio Pespectives, the key messages for investors are: Inflation continues to be sticky, but how sticky it is from here is now in focus. A recent IMF paper examining the historical record of inflation provides a good framework to consider how much longer will inflation remain “unresolved”. Inflation took, on […]
In this month’s edition of Portfolio Perspectives, the key messages for investors are: Recent macroeconomic data supports our expectations for a “soft landing” The US yield curve has set a new record for the time inverted Lonsec believes the inversion reflects more than a view that inflation will be sticky We believe the market is […]
In this month’s edition of Portfolio Pespectives, the key messages for investors are: We remain late cycle but believe a “soft landing” is still plausible The services sector, not manufacturing, has a more significant impact on the global economy As long as the Services Purchasing Managers Index across the US, Eurozone, Japan and China remain […]
In this month’s edition of Portfolio Pespectives, the key messages for investors are: Lonsec moves into the ’soft landing‘ camp The services economy is the key driver within most major economies and this portion of the global economy remains in expansionary conditions Consumer spending is constructive, fuelling the services economy Unemployment is near multi-decade lows […]
This is the last Portfolio Perspective for 2023. Going into this festive time of the year, from all of us at Lonsec Investment Solutions we wish you and your family a good rest and happy holidays. Portfolio Perspective will return in February 2024. Key Messages for Investors: Macroeconomic conditions are decelerating, but the impact is […]
In brief: We are at the beginning of the end of this economic cycle. However, the duration of this slowdown remains elusive as employment conditions remain robust. Historical US recessions have been as short as two months to as long as 18 months but have averaged ten months overall. Now is the time to be […]
In brief: We believe an apparent imbalance between the supply and demand of US government debt could lead to higher long-term interest rates regardless of the inflation path. For defensive allocations, we prefer Australian long-term bonds over the US equivalent. We believe the key drivers of Australian inflation are largely outside of the Reserve Bank […]
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