In brief: We are at the beginning of the end of this economic cycle. However, the duration of this slowdown remains elusive as employment conditions remain robust. Historical US recessions have been as short as two months to as long as 18 months but have averaged ten months overall. Now is the time to be […]
In brief: We believe an apparent imbalance between the supply and demand of US government debt could lead to higher long-term interest rates regardless of the inflation path. For defensive allocations, we prefer Australian long-term bonds over the US equivalent. We believe the key drivers of Australian inflation are largely outside of the Reserve Bank […]
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