By: Brendan Tully, Managed Account Consultant

Recently, there has been much commentary on rising interest rates and inflation and the impacts on investment returns and your clients’ outcomes. There have been very few sectors which have produced positive returns in the last 12 months and so the impacts have been felt across the range of investor profiles. No one has escaped unscathed.

It can be challenging in these conditions to feel confident that your advice is delivering value to your clients. While we like to think that we, and our clients, make rational decisions when it comes to investments, this may not be the case due to information, cognitive and time limitations. Nobel prize winning political scientist Herbert Simon proposed the concept of ‘bounded rationality’-as humans we make partly irrational decisions due to cognitive, information and time limitations. There is an abundance of information and commentary, some of it consistent, some contrary and markets and the macro environment seem to move more quickly than ever. The speed of recent inflation increases, and corresponding interest rate movements, have caught many by surprise.

With this as the backdrop, it is important to consider the context of the advised client and the role that advisors play in a service that is now of more value than ever.

Below are some possible conversations that are occurring with your clients. How do you think through and respond to these rationally?

Do I move funds to cash or dilute my current risk tolerance?

It’s not rational that you can time the markets or grasp how much downside the market has already factored in. Are we at the bottom of the cycle? Can longer term compounding inflation impacts be met by changing to a more conservative asset allocation?

During the GFC in 2008, clients moving to cash locked in an average loss of 8.5%.[1] These loses were compounded as many of these clients stayed in cash and missed the corresponding market rebound. Vanguard’s research[2] indicated that in a US diversified portfolio of 50% equities and 50% bonds, not sold down, saw an average return of 7% between pre GFC peaks and the proceeding 11 years. Understanding the long term impact of investment decisions is one of the key values of advice.

Your advice value?

Clients invest for a purpose which your advice and strategy is designed to deliver. Your value in assisting clients stay true to that course and not falling into an irrational decision cycle should not be underestimated. Has the strategy changed, are the client’s goals still relevant? Has the clients risk appetite changed, if so, is this an elastic response driven by current state or a deeper permanent shift?

Like advisors, my GP is a professional that has my long-term interests in mind, in their case my health. I am not convinced they would call my decision to reduce my prescription by half or my decision to cease all medication for an extended period a rational choice. It would be a decision not without consequence for my long-term health.

The long game.

From a client and business risk perspective is it appropriate to move in and out of client strategy in the hope that we are finding market highs and lows? There will always be market troughs and peaks and many factors outside of your control. Is it rational to make tactical moves at every market shift? In the long game your controllable’s become the client, education, communication, engagement and reaffirmation of objectives and goals and your strategy.

The importance of clarity and context

How do we recognise and replace irrational decisions with rational ones?

One solution is a considered, clear, and articulated Investment philosophy. Your Investment Philosophy is a reference point that reminds you (and your clients) of your fundamental investment beliefs. These are rational beliefs that in times of stress can be replaced with irrational ones and provides clarity when you need it most.

Lonsec has a clear investment philosophy, and every decision is made with these principles in mind. It is the guiding reference that helps provide stability, particularly in times of market upheaval. We have stayed true to these principles because it is what our clients expect, and we know it is the correct approach when playing the long game. As Roy E. Disney said, “when your values are clear to you, making decisions becomes easier.”

Be clear on your value and remind clients of this value in every conversation and decision made. Be clear in your investment philosophy, be great at revisiting goals, be good at assisting your clients in staying the course and have confidence in the resilience of your advice. Effective strategic advice creates immediate and long-lasting client value. Its positive impact will linger long after the market cycle has shifted.


[1] ‘Should you switch to cash when markets are volatile?’ Aware Super October 2019

[2] ‘The global financial crisis: Behind us but far from over’ Vanguard September 2018

Disclaimer:

Brendan Tully is a Managed Account Consultant with Lonsec Group.  This information is for personal, non-commercial purposes only and is not intended to be financial product advice.

IMPORTANT NOTICE: This document is published by Lonsec Investment Solutions Pty Ltd ACN 608 837 583, a Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR 1236821) (LIS) of Lonsec Research Pty Ltd ABN 11 151 658 561 AFSL 421 445 (Lonsec Research).  LIS creates the model portfolios it distributes using the investment research provided by Lonsec Research but LIS has not had any involvement in the investment research process for Lonsec Research. LIS and Lonsec Research are owned by Lonsec Holdings Pty Ltd ACN 151 235 406. Please read the following before making any investment decision about any financial product mentioned in this document.

DISCLOSURE AT THE DATE OF PUBLICATION: Lonsec Research receives a fee from the relevant fund manager or product issuer(s) for researching financial products (using objective criteria) which may be referred to in this document. Lonsec Research may also receive a fee from the fund manager or product issuer(s) for subscribing to research content and other Lonsec Research services.  LIS receives a fee for providing the model portfolios to financial services organisations and professionals. LIS’ and Lonsec Research’s fees are not linked to the financial product rating(s) outcome or the inclusion of the financial product(s) in model portfolios. LIS and Lonsec Research and their representatives and/or their associates may hold any financial product(s) referred to in this document, but details of these holdings are not known to the Lonsec Research analyst(s).

WARNINGS: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Any express or implied rating or advice presented in this document is limited to general advice and based solely on consideration of the investment merits of the financial product(s) alone, without taking into account the investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs (“financial circumstances”) of any particular person. Before making an investment decision based on the rating or advice, the reader must consider whether it is personally appropriate in light of his or her financial circumstances or should seek independent financial advice on its appropriateness.  If the financial advice relates to the acquisition or possible acquisition of a particular financial product, the reader should obtain and consider the Investment Statement or the Product Disclosure Statement for each financial product before making any decision about whether to acquire the financial product.

DISCLAIMER: No representation, warranty or undertaking is given or made in relation to the accuracy or completeness of the information presented in this document, which is drawn from public information not verified by LIS. The information contained in this document is current as at the date of publication. Financial conclusions, ratings and advice are reasonably held at the time of publication but subject to change without notice. LIS assumes no obligation to update this document following publication. Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, LIS and Lonsec Research, their directors, officers, employees and agents disclaim all liability for any error or inaccuracy in, misstatement or omission from, this document or any loss or damage suffered by the reader or any other person as a consequence of relying upon it.

Copyright © 2022 Lonsec Investment Solutions Pty Ltd ACN 608 837 583 (LIS). This document may also contain third party supplied material that is subject to copyright.  The same restrictions that apply to LIS copyrighted material, apply to such third-party content.

For the past 10 years investors have become accustomed to double digit returns from equities and low market volatility. As interest rates normalise we are heading into a different market environment characterised by higher volatility and greater dispersion in returns between stocks. For some investors the last 10 years’ market environment is all they have known, while for others what markets were like prior the global financial crisis of 2008 is a distant memory.

We would argue that the past 10 years which was characterised by record low interest rates and ample liquidity, was not a normal market environment. In fact, it was an anomaly resulting from extreme unconventional monetary policy settings aimed at avoiding a deep recession or a global depression following the breakdown in financial systems in 2008. As central banks sailed down the path of quantitative easing (QE), at the back of their minds they were scratching their heads as to what will be their exit strategy from QE. Roll forward to today and inflation has given central banks their exit strategy, with key central banks raising interest rates and tapering their respective QE programs in order to stem demand and dampen inflation.

The move towards higher interest rates is a rest for the global economy and markets. Debt has become more expensive and companies which existed due to readily available cheap debt are disappearing or at a minimum being repriced aggressively. In this environment we are likely to see the strong get stronger and an increase in merger and acquisition activity as cashed up companies look for opportunities to grow their market share by acquiring companies with weaker balance sheets.

From a portfolio perspective, in this period of transition the traditional 60/40 portfolio has suffered as both equities and bonds have repriced as interest rates and bond yields have risen. So, does this mean that the traditional ‘balanced’ portfolio is dead? Our view is that the transition to higher interest rates will be painful however that as we reset to a more ‘normal’ market environment a ‘balanced’ style portfolio made up of equities, bonds and other assets such as alternatives will come back into vogue. In recent years a strategy of simply having an overweight to equities has been a winning strategy. However, we expect greater market volatility will make investing in equities less clear-cut and investors will need to be more discerning as to the companies they hold. Furthermore, the ‘unsexy’ world of bonds will become more interesting as bond yields rise and the relative attractiveness of bonds to equities increases.

We believe that we are heading back to markets of old where investors should expect single digit equity returns over the long term and higher levels of market volatility. In terms of total portfolio returns, we expect that diversification will become more critical and bonds will play a greater role in contributing to portfolio returns in the future.

IMPORTANT NOTICE: This document is published by Lonsec Investment Solutions Pty Ltd ACN 608 837 583, a Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR 1236821) (LIS) of Lonsec Research Pty Ltd ABN 11 151 658 561 AFSL 421 445 (Lonsec Research).  LIS creates the model portfolios it distributes using the investment research provided by Lonsec Research but LIS has not had any involvement in the investment research process for Lonsec Research. LIS and Lonsec Research are owned by Lonsec Holdings Pty Ltd ACN 151 235 406. Please read the following before making any investment decision about any financial product mentioned in this document.

DISCLOSURE AT THE DATE OF PUBLICATION: Lonsec Research receives a fee from the relevant fund manager or product issuer(s) for researching financial products (using objective criteria) which may be referred to in this document. Lonsec Research may also receive a fee from the fund manager or product issuer(s) for subscribing to research content and other Lonsec Research services.  LIS receives a fee for providing the model portfolios to financial services organisations and professionals. LIS’ and Lonsec Research’s fees are not linked to the financial product rating(s) outcome or the inclusion of the financial product(s) in model portfolios. LIS and Lonsec Research and their representatives and/or their associates may hold any financial product(s) referred to in this document, but details of these holdings are not known to the Lonsec Research analyst(s).

WARNINGS: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Any express or implied rating or advice presented in this document is limited to general advice and based solely on consideration of the investment merits of the financial product(s) alone, without taking into account the investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs (“financial circumstances”) of any particular person. Before making an investment decision based on the rating or advice, the reader must consider whether it is personally appropriate in light of his or her financial circumstances or should seek independent financial advice on its appropriateness.  If the financial advice relates to the acquisition or possible acquisition of a particular financial product, the reader should obtain and consider the Investment Statement or the Product Disclosure Statement for each financial product before making any decision about whether to acquire the financial product.

DISCLAIMER: No representation, warranty or undertaking is given or made in relation to the accuracy or completeness of the information presented in this document, which is drawn from public information not verified by LIS. The information contained in this document is current as at the date of publication. Financial conclusions, ratings and advice are reasonably held at the time of publication but subject to change without notice. LIS assumes no obligation to update this document following publication. Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, LIS and Lonsec Research, their directors, officers, employees and agents disclaim all liability for any error or inaccuracy in, misstatement or omission from, this document or any loss or damage suffered by the reader or any other person as a consequence of relying upon it.

Copyright © 2022 Lonsec Investment Solutions Pty Ltd ACN 608 837 583 (LIS). This document may also contain third party supplied material that is subject to copyright.  The same restrictions that apply to LIS copyrighted material, apply to such third-party content.

Following the reprieve in July, markets returned to being volatile in August as the narrative of higher inflation and subsequent higher rates re-gained momentum. In line with previous similar periods, all asset classes sold off with the exception of Australian equities which generated positive returns driven by materials and energy sectors. In such environments where narrow parts of the market drive returns, portfolio diversification is less effective. However, we would argue that diversification remains your best line of defense over the medium to long term, as the likelihood of generating consistent long term risk adjusted returns by investing in a narrow basket of assets is low.

When markets are volatile it can be difficult to focus on the long term and on the positives. However, as we see risks associated with higher interest rates and growing geopolitical tensions amplify, opportunities do and will present themselves in such periods. As with previous market downturns, be it the tech wreck or the global financial crisis, market dispersion creates opportunity, particularly on an individual security level, as markets tend to indiscriminately sell off entire segments of the market irrespective of the quality of individual assets. In such environments we see the good, the bad and the ugly sell off, which has been the case with the technology sector where companies with high debt and ‘promises’ of earnings sell off, alongside companies with strong balanced sheets and strong growth profiles.

Similarly, on an asset classes level, as assets reprice, asset classes that were previously unattractive on measures such a valuation, now deserve another look. A good example of this are bonds. For the best part of 10 years government bonds have been unattractive offering low yields and looking expensive on all valuation measures. This dynamic was fueled by central banks suppressing bond yields via measures such as quantitative easing (QE) coupled with the fact that inflation was non-existent. Roll forward to today and bond yields are above the 3% range, inflation is back and central banks are stopping or tapping on the brakes on QE. Therefore, the forward-looking risk return profile for the asset class is looking very different than the prior 10 years.

We expect volatility to remain with us for the coming months. Key central banks have been clear that they will continue to raise rates until they see evidence of inflation subsiding. The risk of a global recession is elevated as the lagging impact of higher interest rates are yet to come to the fore. From an Australian perspective the composition of the Australian economy, which is heavy on energy and materials, is expected to buffer Australia to some degree from a deep recession and our base case is that if we do go into a technical recession, it will be mild relative to other regions.

As market participants, thinking about the ‘x-factor’ risks is important. In the coming months, outside of inflation the thing to watch will be energy security, notably in Europe as the northern hemisphere winter approaches. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has had a material impact on European energy security, and we have witnessed key European economies look to pivot quickly to sure up energy for the winter, ranging from turning coal plant back on, delaying closing down nuclear plants through to finding alternative energy providers. Germany has already signaled that if they have a strong winter, they may need to ration energy and slow down industrial production to ensure households have enough heating. Such a scenario would further exacerbate the economic slowdown in Europe and would have implications for markets.

Change and transition is never easy and we are going through a significant change in the global economy and markets at the moment. It is a time to be vigilant but also a time to keep a long-term perspective, consider the facts, lean on your investment process and leverage people’s market experience.


IMPORTANT NOTICE: This document is published by Lonsec Investment Solutions Pty Ltd ACN 608 837 583, a Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR 1236821) (LIS) of Lonsec Research Pty Ltd ABN 11 151 658 561 AFSL 421 445 (Lonsec Research).  LIS creates the model portfolios it distributes using the investment research provided by Lonsec Research but LIS has not had any involvement in the investment research process for Lonsec Research. LIS and Lonsec Research are owned by Lonsec Holdings Pty Ltd ACN 151 235 406. Please read the following before making any investment decision about any financial product mentioned in this document.

DISCLOSURE AT THE DATE OF PUBLICATION: Lonsec Research receives a fee from the relevant fund manager or product issuer(s) for researching financial products (using objective criteria) which may be referred to in this document. Lonsec Research may also receive a fee from the fund manager or product issuer(s) for subscribing to research content and other Lonsec Research services.  LIS receives a fee for providing the model portfolios to financial services organisations and professionals. LIS’ and Lonsec Research’s fees are not linked to the financial product rating(s) outcome or the inclusion of the financial product(s) in model portfolios. LIS and Lonsec Research and their representatives and/or their associates may hold any financial product(s) referred to in this document, but details of these holdings are not known to the Lonsec Research analyst(s).

WARNINGS: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Any express or implied rating or advice presented in this document is limited to general advice and based solely on consideration of the investment merits of the financial product(s) alone, without taking into account the investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs (“financial circumstances”) of any particular person. Before making an investment decision based on the rating or advice, the reader must consider whether it is personally appropriate in light of his or her financial circumstances or should seek independent financial advice on its appropriateness.  If the financial advice relates to the acquisition or possible acquisition of a particular financial product, the reader should obtain and consider the Investment Statement or the Product Disclosure Statement for each financial product before making any decision about whether to acquire the financial product.

DISCLAIMER: No representation, warranty or undertaking is given or made in relation to the accuracy or completeness of the information presented in this document, which is drawn from public information not verified by LIS. The information contained in this document is current as at the date of publication. Financial conclusions, ratings and advice are reasonably held at the time of publication but subject to change without notice. LIS assumes no obligation to update this document following publication. Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, LIS and Lonsec Research, their directors, officers, employees and agents disclaim all liability for any error or inaccuracy in, misstatement or omission from, this document or any loss or damage suffered by the reader or any other person as a consequence of relying upon it.

Copyright © 2022 Lonsec Investment Solutions Pty Ltd ACN 608 837 583 (LIS). This document may also contain third party supplied material that is subject to copyright.  The same restrictions that apply to LIS copyrighted material, apply to such third-party content.

In this video, Dan Moradi, Portfolio Manager for Listed Products, provides an update on the Australian equity market following an interesting August reporting season and takes an in-depth look at how sectors and companies performed.

Similar to FY21, this year we had a challenging backdrop heading into the second half of the year, with the ongoing business disruptions caused by Covid, particularly with the Omicron wave that surged around Christmas. But given these challenges, what we saw during the reporting season from company results was pleasing, reflecting a stable operating environment and demonstrating that the underlying fundamentals of our domestic market remains strong despite the ongoing market volatility. Labour costs, labour constraints, price rises, and inventory management dominated discussions and outlook statements over the reporting period. To-date the market seems to be navigating these headwinds relatively well and we’ve seen many companies passing on the additional costs to end consumers to protect their profit margins.


The information in this video is prepared by Lonsec Investment Solutions Pty Ltd ABN 95 608 837 583 (LIS, we, us, our), a Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR) No. 1236821 of Lonsec Research Pty Ltd ABN 11 151 658 561, AFSL No. 421445 (Lonsec Research). Any express or implied rating or advice presented in this video is limited to general advice and based solely on consideration of the investment merits of the financial product(s) alone, without taking into account the investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs (“financial circumstances”) of any particular person. Before making an investment decision you must consider your financial circumstances or seek personal financial advice on its appropriateness. Read the Product Disclosure Statement for each financial product before making any decision about whether to acquire a financial product.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. No representation, warranty or undertaking is given or made in relation to the accuracy or completeness of the information presented in this video, which is drawn from information not verified by LIS. This video may also contain third party material that is subject to copyright. To the extent that copyright subsists in a third party it remains with the original owner and permission may be required to reuse the material.

The information contained in this video is current as at the date of publication. Financial conclusions, ratings and advice are reasonably held at the time of publication but subject to change without notice. LIS assumes no obligation to update this document following publication. This video is not intended for use by a retail client or a member of the public and should not be used or relied upon by any other person. This video is not to be distributed without the consent of LIS. Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, LIS and Lonsec Research, their directors, officers, employees and agents disclaim all liability for any error or inaccuracy in, misstatement or omission from, this video or any loss or damage suffered by the reader or any other person as a consequence of relying upon it. Copyright © 2022 Lonsec Investment Solutions Pty Ltd.

You may not reproduce, transmit, disseminate, sell or publish this video without our written consent.

Markets were buoyed in July by data from the US suggesting that inflation may have peaked. All asset classes enjoyed strong returns and we saw a sharp rebound in segments of the market which were previously sold down on the back of inflation fears, such as the technology sector. During the month we observed a sharp reversal in short-term price momentum indicators which turned from red to bright green suggesting market sentiment had turned positive. So, is this the start of the next bull market or is it a false start and more pain is to come?

Despite the uptick in market performance, if we look at the facts, not much has changed. Inflation still remains high, the market continues to price in interest rate rises and there is evidence that the global economy is slowing. While we are starting to see some ‘green shoots’ in terms of the external drivers that have contributed to inflation showing some signs of easing, such as the improvement in global supply chains, the jury is still out as to the effectiveness of the current rate hiking cycle on controlling inflation. Since July the US Federal Reserve has reconfirmed their commitment to rate rises until they see clear evidence of inflation abating. Furthermore, we may see more aggressive quantitative tightening (QT), which in effect seeks to reduce central bank balance sheets to fight inflation. This has resulted in a resumption of market volatility. There are also the ‘X-Factors’ such as the conflict in Ukraine and the resultant pressure on energy prices, as well as the growing tensions between China and the West in relation to Taiwan. Both ‘X-Factor’ events are unpredictable and are contributing to the inflationary pressures we are currently observing.

We at Lonsec still believe that inflation will eventually peak and we may see central banks seek to reduce rates at some point in the coming 12 months as the economy shows further signs of slowing. The global economy is already showing signs of slowing with consumer sentiment falling, certain parts of the market such as construction under increased pressure, and indicators such as PMIs, while still broadly positive, showing signs of weakening. If central banks overshoot in their rate hikes the economic slow down will be more pronounced plunging world economies into a recession.

From a portfolio perspective, we have maintained our neutral asset allocation stance and continue to keep our portfolios relatively diversified. We expect more of the same in the coming six months with markets overreacting to short-term news, be it positive or negative, as markets try to navigate where inflation will land. We are continuing to look for evidence of inflation peaking and subsequent stabilisation of bond yields. Staffing remains an issue across sectors and companies are more hesitant in providing forward guidance. We are also closely watching company earnings. To date, companies have been able to pass on rising costs to the end consumer. However, the extent to which this will continue is yet to be seen.


IMPORTANT NOTICE: This document is published by Lonsec Investment Solutions Pty Ltd ACN 608 837 583, a Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR 1236821) (LIS) of Lonsec Research Pty Ltd ABN 11 151 658 561 AFSL 421 445 (Lonsec Research).  LIS creates the model portfolios it distributes using the investment research provided by Lonsec Research but LIS has not had any involvement in the investment research process for Lonsec Research. LIS and Lonsec Research are owned by Lonsec Holdings Pty Ltd ACN 151 235 406. Please read the following before making any investment decision about any financial product mentioned in this document.

DISCLOSURE AT THE DATE OF PUBLICATION: Lonsec Research receives a fee from the relevant fund manager or product issuer(s) for researching financial products (using objective criteria) which may be referred to in this document. Lonsec Research may also receive a fee from the fund manager or product issuer(s) for subscribing to research content and other Lonsec Research services.  LIS receives a fee for providing the model portfolios to financial services organisations and professionals. LIS’ and Lonsec Research’s fees are not linked to the financial product rating(s) outcome or the inclusion of the financial product(s) in model portfolios. LIS and Lonsec Research and their representatives and/or their associates may hold any financial product(s) referred to in this document, but details of these holdings are not known to the Lonsec Research analyst(s).

WARNINGS: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Any express or implied rating or advice presented in this document is limited to general advice and based solely on consideration of the investment merits of the financial product(s) alone, without taking into account the investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs (“financial circumstances”) of any particular person. Before making an investment decision based on the rating or advice, the reader must consider whether it is personally appropriate in light of his or her financial circumstances or should seek independent financial advice on its appropriateness.  If the financial advice relates to the acquisition or possible acquisition of a particular financial product, the reader should obtain and consider the Investment Statement or the Product Disclosure Statement for each financial product before making any decision about whether to acquire the financial product.

DISCLAIMER: No representation, warranty or undertaking is given or made in relation to the accuracy or completeness of the information presented in this document, which is drawn from public information not verified by LIS. The information contained in this document is current as at the date of publication. Financial conclusions, ratings and advice are reasonably held at the time of publication but subject to change without notice. LIS assumes no obligation to update this document following publication. Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, LIS and Lonsec Research, their directors, officers, employees and agents disclaim all liability for any error or inaccuracy in, misstatement or omission from, this document or any loss or damage suffered by the reader or any other person as a consequence of relying upon it.

Copyright © 2022 Lonsec Investment Solutions Pty Ltd ACN 608 837 583 (LIS). This document may also contain third party supplied material that is subject to copyright.  The same restrictions that apply to LIS copyrighted material, apply to such third-party content.

Lonsec continues to drive investment efficiencies for advisers by expanding its support of Managed Accounts on the Netwealth platform. Lonsec has added to Netwealth’s Global Specialist Series (GSS) Managed Account range, by launching Lonsec GSS Index Plus.

The portfolios are built around core Netwealth GSS passive strategies, and a range of active satellite funds that leverage Lonsec’s extensive research capabilities and backed by its rigorous governance and review process.

‘These new managed portfolios give investors and financial advisers access to investment solutions supported by one of Australia’s largest investment consulting and research teams,’ said Lonsec CEO Mike Wright.

‘Being able to access our portfolio construction and investment selection expertise can help advisers and investors to make better investment decisions and we’re proud to partner with Netwealth to bring these portfolios to the market,’ continued Wright

Lonsec GSS Index Plus offers four portfolios: Moderate, Balanced, Growth and High Growth. Each is designed to achieve different risk and investment objectives over various timeframes. They are constructed using a range of growth and defensive assets such as Australian and global equities, property, fixed interest, and cash.

‘We were excited to develop this suite of portfolios with Netwealth as they offer a cost competitive solution for investors looking for a quality investment providing capital growth and income over the medium to long term. The portfolios also incorporate dynamic asset allocation and use a core/satellite approach to investment selection,’ said Lonsec CIO Lukasz de Pourbaix.

Matt Heine, Netwealth Joint Managing Director said ‘Lonsec bring a wealth of investment research and portfolio construction expertise to this partnership, and we are sure that these portfolios will prove popular with our advisers and investors.’

Lonsec is one of Australia’s fastest growing Managed Accounts portfolio managers, with monthly net inflows recently exceeding $250m. Lonsec also recently acquired the specialist Managed Discretionary Account provider, Implemented Portfolios Limited, who has a deep history and commitment to helping advisers meet the needs of their clients.

Release ends

For more information, please contact:

Rob Hardy
Rob.Hardy@lonsec.com.au

We are currently in an environment we haven’t seen since the mid-1990s, of extremely high inflation and low growth, which has surprised many investors and has been damaging for those that have a low tolerance to risk, such as retirees. Despite negative returns, and while we haven’t been able to avoid the losses entirely, the Retirement portfolios have significantly outperformed the peer group benchmark, protecting retirees. The portfolio also delivered top quartile returns with less risk than the peer group over the 12 months to June 2022. In terms of total return, the portfolio remains comfortably above its Cash plus 2.4% objective over the 4-year recommended investment timeframe.

True to our investment philosophy and approach, having true diversification in the portfolios, being dynamic in how we positioned the portfolio this year, investing in high-quality strategies, and having a strong risk control, have paid off.


The information in this video is prepared by Lonsec Investment Solutions Pty Ltd ABN 95 608 837 583 (LIS, we, us, our), a Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR) No. 1236821 of Lonsec Research Pty Ltd ABN 11 151 658 561, AFSL No. 421445 (Lonsec Research). Any express or implied rating or advice presented in this video is limited to general advice and based solely on consideration of the investment merits of the financial product(s) alone, without taking into account the investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs (“financial circumstances”) of any particular person. Before making an investment decision you must consider your financial circumstances or seek personal financial advice on its appropriateness. Read the Product Disclosure Statement for each financial product before making any decision about whether to acquire a financial product.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. No representation, warranty or undertaking is given or made in relation to the accuracy or completeness of the information presented in this video, which is drawn from information not verified by LIS. This video may also contain third party material that is subject to copyright. To the extent that copyright subsists in a third party it remains with the original owner and permission may be required to reuse the material.

The information contained in this video is current as at the date of publication. Financial conclusions, ratings and advice are reasonably held at the time of publication but subject to change without notice. LIS assumes no obligation to update this document following publication. This video is not intended for use by a retail client or a member of the public and should not be used or relied upon by any other person. This video is not to be distributed without the consent of LIS. Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, LIS and Lonsec Research, their directors, officers, employees and agents disclaim all liability for any error or inaccuracy in, misstatement or omission from, this video or any loss or damage suffered by the reader or any other person as a consequence of relying upon it. Copyright © 2022 Lonsec Investment Solutions Pty Ltd.

You may not reproduce, transmit, disseminate, sell or publish this video without our written consent.

It has been a challenging period for multi-asset investors with both equity and bond markets recording some of the worse starts to a year in decades. Global equity markets fell significantly over the quarter and domestically the ASX 300 index has fallen more than 10% since the start of the calendar year.

ESG and sustainable portfolios in general have felt the pain more acutely given the wide dispersion seen in sector returns and the Lonsec Sustainable portfolios were no exception. The portfolios have had a difficult quarter, lagging the peer group benchmark by some margin. Over the quarter, Dynamic Asset Allocation added value in the Balanced risk profile which benefited most from our underweight position in Fixed Income. In the higher risk profiles, DAA was flat to slightly negative as our overweight position in real assets more than offset the gains made in Fixed Income.

Looking ahead, our Sustainable positions remain diversified in order to be resilient to further market volatility. We continue to monitor developments regarding inflation, monetary policy and the global economy and we will adjust our portfolios if necessary to navigate through the challenges ahead.


The information in this video is prepared by Lonsec Investment Solutions Pty Ltd ABN 95 608 837 583 (LIS, we, us, our), a Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR) No. 1236821 of Lonsec Research Pty Ltd ABN 11 151 658 561, AFSL No. 421445 (Lonsec Research). Any express or implied rating or advice presented in this video is limited to general advice and based solely on consideration of the investment merits of the financial product(s) alone, without taking into account the investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs (“financial circumstances”) of any particular person. Before making an investment decision you must consider your financial circumstances or seek personal financial advice on its appropriateness. Read the Product Disclosure Statement for each financial product before making any decision about whether to acquire a financial product.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. No representation, warranty or undertaking is given or made in relation to the accuracy or completeness of the information presented in this video, which is drawn from information not verified by LIS. This video may also contain third party material that is subject to copyright. To the extent that copyright subsists in a third party it remains with the original owner and permission may be required to reuse the material.

The information contained in this video is current as at the date of publication. Financial conclusions, ratings and advice are reasonably held at the time of publication but subject to change without notice. LIS assumes no obligation to update this document following publication. This video is not intended for use by a retail client or a member of the public and should not be used or relied upon by any other person. This video is not to be distributed without the consent of LIS. Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, LIS and Lonsec Research, their directors, officers, employees and agents disclaim all liability for any error or inaccuracy in, misstatement or omission from, this video or any loss or damage suffered by the reader or any other person as a consequence of relying upon it. Copyright © 2022 Lonsec Investment Solutions Pty Ltd.

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In this video, Lukasz de Pourbaix, Executive Director and CIO of Lonsec Investment Solutions provides an update on what’s been happening in the markets, with market volatility and inflation. Lukasz then explains what this means for the Lonsec portfolios.


IMPORTANT NOTICE: This document is published by Lonsec Investment Solutions Pty Ltd ACN 608 837 583, a Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR 1236821) (LIS) of Lonsec Research Pty Ltd ABN 11 151 658 561 AFSL 421 445 (Lonsec Research).  LIS creates the model portfolios it distributes using the investment research provided by Lonsec Research but LIS has not had any involvement in the investment research process for Lonsec Research. LIS and Lonsec Research are owned by Lonsec Holdings Pty Ltd ACN 151 235 406. Please read the following before making any investment decision about any financial product mentioned in this document.

DISCLOSURE AT THE DATE OF PUBLICATION: Lonsec Research receives a fee from the relevant fund manager or product issuer(s) for researching financial products (using objective criteria) which may be referred to in this document. Lonsec Research may also receive a fee from the fund manager or product issuer(s) for subscribing to research content and other Lonsec Research services.  LIS receives a fee for providing the model portfolios to financial services organisations and professionals. LIS’ and Lonsec Research’s fees are not linked to the financial product rating(s) outcome or the inclusion of the financial product(s) in model portfolios. LIS and Lonsec Research and their representatives and/or their associates may hold any financial product(s) referred to in this document, but details of these holdings are not known to the Lonsec Research analyst(s).

WARNINGS: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Any express or implied rating or advice presented in this document is limited to general advice and based solely on consideration of the investment merits of the financial product(s) alone, without taking into account the investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs (“financial circumstances”) of any particular person. Before making an investment decision based on the rating or advice, the reader must consider whether it is personally appropriate in light of his or her financial circumstances or should seek independent financial advice on its appropriateness.  If the financial advice relates to the acquisition or possible acquisition of a particular financial product, the reader should obtain and consider the Investment Statement or the Product Disclosure Statement for each financial product before making any decision about whether to acquire the financial product.

DISCLAIMER: No representation, warranty or undertaking is given or made in relation to the accuracy or completeness of the information presented in this document, which is drawn from public information not verified by LIS. The information contained in this document is current as at the date of publication. Financial conclusions, ratings and advice are reasonably held at the time of publication but subject to change without notice. LIS assumes no obligation to update this document following publication. Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, LIS and Lonsec Research, their directors, officers, employees and agents disclaim all liability for any error or inaccuracy in, misstatement or omission from, this document or any loss or damage suffered by the reader or any other person as a consequence of relying upon it.

Copyright © 2022 Lonsec Investment Solutions Pty Ltd ACN 608 837 583 (LIS). This document may also contain third party supplied material that is subject to copyright.  The same restrictions that apply to LIS copyrighted material, apply to such third-party content.

Fixed Income is added to a broad portfolio of assets for several reasons. They include:

  • Return: Frequent income from the cash flows of the coupon or interest payments to stabilise the risk and return of your client’s portfolio.
  • Defensive: Capital Preservation. The relatively steady return of capital of fixed-income products (unless there is a credit event default with particular debt security) can partly offset losses from a decline in share prices.
  • Risk Diversification: Broadening the opportunity set in a multi-asset portfolio to diversify risk.

Although there are many benefits to fixed income products, as with all investments, there are several risks investors should be aware of.

  • Credit and Default Risk: Federal, State, and Semi-Government bonds and securities have the backing of the relevant Government. Whereas, corporate bonds, are backed by the financial viability of the underlying company. Should a company declare bankruptcy, bondholders have a higher claim on company assets than do common shareholders. Bonds with credit ratings below BBB are of lower quality and considered below investment grade or junk bonds
  • Interest Rate Risk: This risk happens in an environment like now whereby market interest rates are rising, and the price paid by the bond falls behind. In this case, the bond would lose value in the secondary bond market if sold or market to market on a daily basis like share prices.
  • Market Risk: The prices of bonds (like shares) can increase and decrease over the life of the bond. If the investor holds the bond until its maturity, the price movements are immaterial since the investor will be paid the par face value (usually the 100 cents in the dollar) of the bond upon maturity. However, if the bondholder sells the bond before its maturity through a broker or financial institution in the secondary market, the investor will receive the current market price at the time of the sale. The selling price could result in a gain or loss on the bond investment depending on the underlying corporation, the coupon interest rate, and the current market interest rate.
  • Inflation Risk: Inflationary risk is also a danger to fixed-income investors. The pace at which prices rise in the economy is called inflation. If inflation increases, it eats into the gains of fixed income securities. For example, if fixed-rate debt security pays a 3% return and inflation rises by 5%, the investor loses out, earning only a -2% return in real terms.

What’s Better for Fixed Income Investors when Interest Rates are Rising?

During a period of rising interest rates (yields) fixed-income investments that pay a fixed rate of interest, such as bonds are not helpful, for two reasons:

Firstly, there is an inverse relationship between a bond’s price and its yield – as interest rates increase, bonds fall in value, so bondholders can face capital losses if the bonds are sold prior to maturity. If not sold prior to maturity and they do not default, you get the original par value back plus interest.

Secondly, the income stream from fixed-rate bonds remains the same until maturity. However, as inflation rises, the purchasing power of the interest payments declines.

Investments that pay a floating rate of return are likely to be better off in an inflationary environment, as the interest rate they pay is adjusted periodically such as every 90 days to reflect market rates. If interest rates rise, the interest paid by the investment should also increase at the next reset date. Investors in these types of securities and products do like interest rate hikes as they have very little interest rate duration (or term) risk.

Inflation is generally regarded as damaging to holders of cash and cash equivalents securities or products since the value of cash usually does not keep pace with the increased price of goods and services.

Strategies Employed by Lonsec’s Managers For Diversifying Fixed Income Portfolios During a Climate of Rising inflation and Interest rates

Typically, you take into consideration the client’s return, risk, time horizon, and liquidity expectations.

Usually, such a portfolio is expected to have a minimum time horizon of three years and provide monthly or quarterly income with a level of liquidity to pay their monthly retirement benefits with minimal impact on their capital.

The anchor for the fixed income portfolio is an active fund manager with a core portfolio of investment-grade coupon-paying bonds that continually mature at par into the next series of bonds. In the current investment climate, these active managers have already taken defensive positions by reducing interest rate risk in the portfolio to below benchmark levels of duration and rotating into higher quality rated bonds.  Yes, the daily mark to market price will fluctuate and I have seen portfolios of fixed-rate bonds in some cases now down 8% over one year to the end of April 2022. However, the fixed income portfolio manager is unlikely to sell them before maturity (assuming fund flows are unchanged), and if the bonds don’t default you will get your par value principle back. As the current bond market correction continues in a typical once-a-decade event now is not the time to crystalize your mark to market paper losses. Continue to focus on your three-year strategy and the fund manager will wait for the opportune time to add interest rate risk to core bond holdings when the economic growth fundamentals start to slow and suggest inflationary pressures have peaked. By then the yields and the carry will be much higher in the portfolio.

The next part of the portfolio is your non-core strategies to enhance your income yield with some additional sub-sector strategies including credit, emerging markets, securitised assets.

Within these sub-sectors, it is important to note the following strategies. During this rate hike period floating-rate (or variable investment) strategies will do better than fixed-rate strategies as short-term rates rise due to the regular monthly or quarterly rate reset higher. Remember Floating Rate Portfolio Managers want short-term interest rates to go higher so they can pass on the higher income to their investors. Since you have a diversified portfolio of strategies this component of your portfolio will do well.

In terms of credit strategies, your typical credit manager will also be already defensively positioned. it is important in terms of capital preservation and market volatility to be higher up the capital structure in senior or senior secured debt rather than unsecured debt or hybrids. If interest rates rise too quickly and too high for an extended period, economic growth slows then the level of defaults is at risk of rising. Better to have a bias towards secured debt whereby you are protected by mortgaged assets. Also, the further up the capital structure you are the equity market beta reduces. What that means is debt lower down the capital structure usually moves in about a 0.7 correlation with equity prices. So, if equity or equities go down say 10% in price, lower down the capital structure debt such as unsecured or hybrids may go down an estimated 7% in price terms (and the reverse happens when share prices are rising and the Fund manager rotates down the capital structure). So, the credit fund manager may have added some floating-rate private secured debt or bank loans (subject to the credit rating) strategies in order to reduce the market volatility and increase capital preservation within your portfolio.

Finally, all the active strategies would be keeping up a higher-than-normal level of liquidity to quickly rotate back into higher-yielding credit and interest rate risk strategies when they deem it to be safe to do so.

Lonsec as part of our portfolio construction investment process monitors and actively manages the exposure to fixed interest assets taking into account the prevailing market conditions and risks. The current environment has been challenging for fixed interest managers; however, the market volatility will present investment opportunities and at some point, the yields offered from fixed income will warrant further investigation.


IMPORTANT NOTICE: This document is published by Lonsec Investment Solutions Pty Ltd ACN 608 837 583, a Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR 1236821) (LIS) of Lonsec Research Pty Ltd ABN 11 151 658 561 AFSL 421 445 (Lonsec Research).  LIS creates the model portfolios it distributes using the investment research provided by Lonsec Research but LIS has not had any involvement in the investment research process for Lonsec Research. LIS and Lonsec Research are owned by Lonsec Holdings Pty Ltd ACN 151 235 406. Please read the following before making any investment decision about any financial product mentioned in this document.

DISCLOSURE AT THE DATE OF PUBLICATION: Lonsec Research receives a fee from the relevant fund manager or product issuer(s) for researching financial products (using objective criteria) which may be referred to in this document. Lonsec Research may also receive a fee from the fund manager or product issuer(s) for subscribing to research content and other Lonsec Research services.  LIS receives a fee for providing the model portfolios to financial services organisations and professionals. LIS’ and Lonsec Research’s fees are not linked to the financial product rating(s) outcome or the inclusion of the financial product(s) in model portfolios. LIS and Lonsec Research and their representatives and/or their associates may hold any financial product(s) referred to in this document, but details of these holdings are not known to the Lonsec Research analyst(s).

WARNINGS: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Any express or implied rating or advice presented in this document is limited to general advice and based solely on consideration of the investment merits of the financial product(s) alone, without taking into account the investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs (“financial circumstances”) of any particular person. Before making an investment decision based on the rating or advice, the reader must consider whether it is personally appropriate in light of his or her financial circumstances or should seek independent financial advice on its appropriateness.  If the financial advice relates to the acquisition or possible acquisition of a particular financial product, the reader should obtain and consider the Investment Statement or the Product Disclosure Statement for each financial product before making any decision about whether to acquire the financial product.

DISCLAIMER: No representation, warranty or undertaking is given or made in relation to the accuracy or completeness of the information presented in this document, which is drawn from public information not verified by LIS. The information contained in this document is current as at the date of publication. Financial conclusions, ratings and advice are reasonably held at the time of publication but subject to change without notice. LIS assumes no obligation to update this document following publication. Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, LIS and Lonsec Research, their directors, officers, employees and agents disclaim all liability for any error or inaccuracy in, misstatement or omission from, this document or any loss or damage suffered by the reader or any other person as a consequence of relying upon it.

Copyright © 2022 Lonsec Investment Solutions Pty Ltd ACN 608 837 583 (LIS). This document may also contain third party supplied material that is subject to copyright.  The same restrictions that apply to LIS copyrighted material, apply to such third-party content.

Important information: Any express or implied rating or advice is limited to general advice, it doesn’t consider any personal needs, goals or objectives.  Before making any decision about financial products, consider whether it is personally appropriate for you in light of your personal circumstances. Obtain and consider the Product Disclosure Statement for each financial product and seek professional personal advice before making any decisions regarding a financial product.